Archive

Week 10

Sorry Loyal readers, this week’s version has to be very short.  I’ll only be issuing picks as life gets in the way sometimes and I just wasn’t able to get time to produce a full edition.  But fret not…..I ‘ll be back in full force next week as I have accumulated some content that I wanted to get out there this week.  Quick update, last week we went another 2-1 in the best bets and were just a point away from going 3-0.  We also nailed the bonus teaser so overall it was another good week.

This week’s games are basically full of garbage matchups so if there was a week I could use a “bye” it was defintely this one.  Enjoy and I’ll be back next week.

WEEK 10 PICKS

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 WEEK 9 RESULTS

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LAST WEEK & YTD RESULTS

Week 9 Results 6-6

YTD Results 66-65

Week 9 Best Bets 2-1

Best Bets YTD 18-9

Parlays YTD 1-1

Teasers YTD 2-0

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ONE WINNER, ONE PARLAY, ONE TEASER

Good day to all, I’m throwing my hat into the wonderful and fulfilling world on internet sports betting.   There’s nothing better than flushing hard earned dollars down the toilet watching millionaire athletes crush your soul on a weekly basis.   Recently, I started this new betting system each week where I bet just one straight winner, one parlay and one teaser.  I found it to be a good way to spread bets around and so far I’ve kept my head above water which I feel is a win.  There will be no deviations from this and I must place one of each type each week with no exceptions.  My goal is to have certain winning percentages on each betting type:

Above 60% on straight winners

Above 40% on Parlays

At or above 50% Teasers

These percentages should ensure a winning remaining part of the season or at the very least even which I consider a positive.    A few key housekeeping items, I get all of my spreads from 5Dimes sports book and I will only use half points on all spreads because ties/pushes are lame, just like most but not all soccer matches.   Without further adieu, lets take a peek at a tough Week 10 in the NFL:

1 WINNER

Baltimore Ravens -8½ +100* vs Oakland Raiders 1PM EST

I put the time of the game up there because that is basically the main reason I am laying more than a touchdown here.  The Raiders record coming across the country and playing a 1pm game is pretty brutal.  This would be a great time to bust out some mathematical stat to prove this.  I could probably google it and have it in 5 seconds but I’m so lazy.  Just take my word for it.  Fine, I caved and looked it up because I just yearn for my peers approval.  Their record since 2005 is 12-25 including 0-2 this year.   Also looks like RUN DMC and backup Mike Goodson might not play leaving Taiwan Jones or Marcel Reese to run the ball for the Raiders.   My one hesitation is the spread is a few too many for my liking because Baltimore hasn’t really been blowing people out however they are 4-0 at home and Ray Rice could potentially have a nice day after TB ran wild on the Raiders.
PREDICTION: Ravens 27-14,

BET: $50 to WIN $50

1 PARLAY

Honestly, if I wasn’t a douche and came up with this stupid betting system I would probably be staying away from the Parlay this week but I digress.

INDIANAPOLIS -3.5 +100 vs Jacksonville Jags plus  BUF vs. NE TOTAL over 51.5 -110

I’m basing this more on Jacksonville being horrible than liking the Colts.  The Colts are coming off an extremely emotional victory over Miami where Chuck Pagano gave a pretty fantastic speech before and after the game.  They all shaved their heads in support of him so they have some good momentum going.  They are also looking to avenge an earlier season loss to the Jags in Indy.  The Colts aren’t a great road team and could be due for an emotional let down but lets face it,the Jags are brutal.  They are also 0-4 at home.

The NE/BUF game should be a high scoring affair.  NE offense is playing pretty well right now along with a Buffalo D that can’t stop anyone.  Buffalo should be able to put some points on the board to get this total over.  Weather doesn’t appear to be an issue for game day as of right now with the forecast calling for high’s near 60 and light winds.

PREDICTIONS: Indy 24-7 &  NE 42-BUF 17

BET: $25 to WIN $70.45

1 TEASER

I don’t know why I love teasers so much, I just do.  It probably has something to do with when you look at the lines moved up or down they look so enticing like a big fat streak with all the trimmings.  I look at every game thinking how easy is this.  Then reality sinks in and they play the actual games.  Usually the line being moved wouldn’t have affected it at all but that rare time when you tease a game and it covers because of the tease you feel like Jimmy the Greek’s long lost offspring.  .  I think there are many teasers that look really nice but I’ve settled on these 3 with moving the line 5.5 points.

San Francisco 49ers -6.5 vs St. Louis Rams 

New England Patriots -6.5 vs Buffalo Bills

New York Giants +1.5 vs Cincinnati Bengals

I think the first 2 are pretty easy.   Large lines that I can bring down with superior teams at home vs 2 teams that are frankly not that good.   I don’t think either team should have an issue covering a touchdown but just in case its close there’s a little leeway built in.    The last one might seem like I’m being a homer but not really when you look into it.  The Giants are just a better road team for some reason.  Their best victory performances this year have all been on the road (SF & CAR).  Plus, I can see the Giants offense getting on track this week after multiple sub par performances vs a pretty pedestrian Bengals D.   I think it will be close but I see the Giants winning outright but maybe not covering the 4 point regular spread, hence the tease.   

PREDICTIONS: (SF 28-10) (NE 42-17) (NYG 28-24)

BET: $35 to WIN $63.00

TOTAL WEEK 10 BETS:  $110 to WIN $183.45