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Week 1

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Oh yessssssssssssssssss!!!!!! Care, Worried, Matters.  Welcome one and welcome all to the third annual installment of parlays and teasers.  I would love nothing more for this year to be the first year that I can complete an entire year of picks from Week 1 through the Super Bowl.  I am going to do my best to try to be able to accomplish that.  It would be great to start getting a real footprint with logged picks year after year.   Even if I don’t have the time to blog some weeks my intention is to post picks at a minimum to be as legit as possible.  I really do hope to get some nice content on here week after week.   The first couple of weeks I’ll probably be feeling out what I want to change up from previous years, although I have some ideas already.  However, I’m also having writers block no less than 5 minutes into starting this.  With all that said,  thanks for spending a few minutes with good Ole Hal each week.

QUICK LEAGUE NOTES

There’s nothing better than week 1 of the NFL season.  Every team has at least some semblance of hope going into the year even though in most cities that euphoria comes crashing down after about the 1st quarter.   I think the key for my success is being able to identify those teams that will have the sustained success.   This was an achilles heal for me as I was late to the party with the dominant teams.   Last year, I was never a huge believer in Seattle until about halfway through the season.  I thought early on Houston, Atlanta would stop the bleeding at some point.  Teams like the Ravens and Steelers I put too much stock in last year.   I think if I can get a better feel for the year then my picks will improve.  I think the proverbial “eye test” is probably the best analysis out there so my goal is to watch more games.  I now have Direct TV with the NFL Sunday ticket so I except to watch more games than in years past.   I honestly didn’t watch that much football last year due to life getting in the way far too often and watching highlights gives you little to no insight on how a team is actually built.  Minus watching the train wreck called the 2013 NY Football Giants weekly, I probably only tuned into a quarter here and a quarter there on various weeks.  I have vowed to change that and made the investment in the NFL Ticket to back up my talk.  OK, that last sentence was a total fabrication of the truth, I got the NFL package for free this year when I signed up for Direct TV 6 months ago and I only have to cancel it before next season to not get charged.  However, I’m assuming once I have it full time I won’t want to let it go.  Actually, when you do a cost analysis of it, the cost of the season package is about 2 or 3 trips to the sports bar depending on the amount of beers you want to guzzle down or the quantity of wings you want to shove down your trough.

Last thought on the NFL is the couple of guys including Wes Welker getting suspended yesterday for MDMA.   Ahh, ecstasy, now as everyone knows that is a great drug.  It reminds me of the Summer of 1999.   I just wanted to remind everyone of the hierarchy of drugs in case you wanted to know:

1. Ecstasy

2. Coke

3. Weed

Case closed and it’s not up for discussion.    You know I’m right because you take ecstasy first, then you do lines to heighten it, then smoke weed to come down.   Come on, I shouldn’t have to repeat this.

WEEKLY RANT (which will lead into a new section)

Oh, where do I start.  The last time I posted something I was about to become a Dad and close to moving.  I can happily say everything has gone well in both of those regards.   Isabella Poopie Pants is doing great even though she’s allowed me to sleep 10 minutes in 8 months.  Now the worry is trying not to let her put the entire contents of the house in her mouth or attempt to find every piece of dangerous items laying around in a 2 foot area from the floor up.  She has become a pro at both skills in relative short time.   We also bought a house site unseen and moved to ILM.  We never saw the house prior to pulling up the first day we arrived minus some internet picture . That’s definitely not something I would ever do again but it’s worked out OK and we got it at a decent price.

Besides that little update I was going to keep this at the business at hand and drop some knowledge on you.  I’m dropping bombs on your Moms.   It’s funny I was wondering what the hell I was going to talk about and then sometimes it just drops in your lap.  As I sit here in my home office (more on that in later weeks) I pretty much watch CNBC the majority day.   Lately the business of sport and the world of finance (that’s pronounced FIN NANCE)  have been colliding every now and then.  This morning was no different and in fact the segment was really was geared more towards the Fantasy Football world.   They had the CEO of Fan Duel (the daily game fantasy site) and it just so happened I was going to be ranting about Fantasy Leagues in general.   Before I go into that rant, allow me to relay some interesting information they showed during that segment

Avg age of Fantasy player:  34

Avg hours they spend a week on fantasy leagues:  8.67 hrs

Percentage of players with college degrees:  78.1%

Average Annual Spend on Leagues:  $111

The one that sticks out for me is the last one.  I think over the next few years $111 will start to go up as more people start allocating monies towards these types of fantasy leagues in place of traditional game betting.  I think Fantasy betting will start to pull even with traditional sports betting in the future.

Recently, the long time football league I’ve been in decided not to continue for many of the same reasons leagues die.  Guys dont pay or don’t take care of their teams.  It seems like its an endless shuffle to track guys down or replace guys and it becomes annoying.    It’s very difficult to run a league where the same members are apart of the league every year and there is no problem with payment.   A few weeks before I found out the league was disbanding I actually started looking into FanDuel as my new fantasy platform.  I’ve been tinkering around it the last few weeks and I’ve really bought into this weekly salary cap platform.  Let’s face it, most year long fantasy football leagues are won and lost many times purely on draft slot and luck.  If you drafted Peyton Manning you at worst got to the finals last year.   I’ve been in plenty of drafts and I don’t think I’ve ever done well in like the 6, 7 or 8th slot.  You want either front end or back end of the draft and if you don’t get it your behind the 8 ball from the get go.  A great thing about the weekly leagues is you can go heavy or light in particular weeks.  You can pick from $1 to multiple thousand dollar leagues.  They also have head to head option which is great because all you have to beat is one dude.  You can also enter the large tourneys for long odds but big payouts if that suits your fancy.  It pretty much has something for everyone.    It inspired me to create a new section of the blog going forward.   You’ll see below where I’ll be posting my weekly lineup in those leagues and will also post results.  I’m going to start out slow with that betting maybe $10-$20 a week until I get what works best for the scoring systems.  It seems to be relatively standard scoring systems but they all have slight variables.

VIDEO OF THE WEEK

 Just a quick one.  Need to do more research on these going forward.  With that said, dames shouldn’t be allowed to park any car at any time.

MY WEEKLY FANTASY LINEUP (SALARY CAP 60K)

This is my first go around on this site so I’m very interested to see how it goes.  I entered a 5 person $10 league.  Winner takes $45.  I’m just trying to get a feel of it for the first week or 2.  To give you an idea of some of the top dollar guys at various positions:   P Manning $10,200,  Jamal Charles $9,800, Megatron $9,200, Jimmy Graham $8,100.  All too rich for my blood.  I’m going with more of the balanced approach trying to take advantage of match ups.   We’ll see how it goes

QB Alex Smith $6,900

RB L McCoy  $9,400

RB R Jennings $6,700

WR K Allen $7,200

WR E Sander $6,400

WR M Crabtree $6,500

TE V Davis $6,300

K B McManus $5,000

D Chiefs  $5,400

 

WEEK 1 GAMES

Just a few changes in how make picks.  I am going to pick every game but have the right to pick a over under if I don’t like the line.  I’m also going to be implement is the selection of 3 Best bets every week.  These are the bets I will comprise a parlay or teaser from.  I will not make parlay or teaser bets every week.  But when I do I will also calculate those.    I won’t be making score prediction either, it’s fucking pointless.     Lastly, I’m working on a format that will make the inputting of the picks and results much fast.   I’ll probably tinker with how this looks but it’s my first go around with it.  I will also probably run into some ties as why I pull the lines from are a consensus of all Vegas odds so there is no way to change them to half points.  Again just a time saver.

 Off we go on the 2014 season!!!

NFL WEEK 1 Lines1jpg_Page1

LAST WEEK & YTD RESULTS

Week 1 Results

Best Bets

These Will update next week

Quote of the Week

Since there are only so many family guy lines, I’m just going to incorporate any line from anything so I have a broader selection.  This week’s:

“Black people are way more susceptible to diabetes.  That’s not racist it’s just a medical fact.   Now if I said, “hide you wallets, there’s diabetes patients around,”  That would be racist. “

-Ari Shaffir

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