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Super Bowl

TyreeIt’s that time of year again.  Superbowl Sunday is approaching.   It’s crazy how quick the season goes by.  I can’t believe that we are down to 2 teams and season will be over after Sunday.   I hope to end on a positive note as the last 2 weeks have been brutal.  We went 0-2 in the conference championship games.   Just didn’t see the games turning out the way they did.  I was behind the wrong horse with the Colts.  I really thought that after being embarrassed by the Pats the last couple of years that this was their time to stand up.  Boy I was wrong.    Regardless of what happens with this game we will stay above .500 for all picks and still had a nice 60% clip on the Best bet selections.  Overall I am happy with how the picks ended up.

QUICK LEAGUE NOTES

Everyone knows about Deflategate and I’m not going to waste anyone’s time on it.   I will only say this one thing.  If it was a close game vs the Colts then I could see the story having legs.  The Colts were so over-matched it wouldn’t have mattered if they were using a fucking beach ball to play with.   However, I get the uproar because it’s the Patriots and they are known cheaters so it sticks people the wrong way.  But if you think that the balls haven’t been tampered by various teams over the years then I think you are being naive.

I think the Green Bay packers should be sending the Patriots a gift basket or something as their choke job, which could have been the worst in league history , has just been passed over because everyone wants to talk about deflated footballs.   If I’m a Packers fan I feel dead inside and that feeling is only going to get worse as the game gets closer.    How do you not close out that game?  Russell Wilson is terrible and tried so many times to give you that game.    The 2 things I really questioned was why did they not challenge Richard Sherman when he was clearly playing on 1 arm.  One first down and that game is over so go after him.   The other play was that the 2 point conversion.  I think that was the turning point where Seattle really thought they might be able to steal the game.   That was such an improbable play their confidence must have soared.    After the game was over I was thinking that Seattle is probably the most undeserving team to win a game that I can remember to win a game in a long time.

I find the Marshawn Lynch coverage pretty funny and I’m trying to think of a more meaningless story ever.   The media coverage at the Super Bowl has gone just way to far to begin with and now you have stories about a guy not saying anything.  Makes no sense and a waste of everyone’s time but I love how defiant he is like he’s standing up for something that matters.  Care

 WEEKLY RANT

Seven years ago the picture above happened.   With the run up to the Super Bowl they show on NFL Network all of the Super Bowl Specials and I DVR’ed the Super Bowl 42 edition.  I had myself a nice little trip down memory lane.  It’s one of the few days that I remember specific details from the entire day even after consuming massive amounts of alcohol.   I also remember smoking 12 packs of cigarettes.  Man I miss smoking.  Cigarettes are just the tops.    Anyway as I was watching the show I started to remember the emotion of that day.  With the exception of the birth of my child and my wedding then Super Bowl 42 was probably the 3rd happiest time of my life.   The feeling I got when Plaxico caught his Sluggo route in the corner of the end zone with 35 seconds left  I have never felt watching any sporting event before or after.   I just watched that play  about 5 times on YouTube and I still get the chills each time.   That game was played a day after my 30th birthday and was the best birthday present I have ever received.

Since this is probably the last edition of the season (however I really hope to put some other editions during the year) I thought I would share some interesting stats for parlaysandteasers.com.  I use WordPress to do this blog and it’s a pretty cool platform.  They give you some stats to see the traffic on the site:

# of total views all time:  1012   (That actually isn’t that bad considering I only send this to about a dozen people each week.)

Busiest day in history of the site was this season’s Week 7: Plow Horse with 25 views.  Makes sense as it was dead in the middle of a strong middle of the season for the picks.

Lastly, it actually gives a breakdown of the geographic location of who visits by country.  Obviously the US was first but take a look at the other countries.

My Stats — WordPressajpg_Page1

Moldova?  That’s fucking awesome.  I’m sure it was just some hacker spam program but I just imagine some guy in Moldova sitting there just refreshing his screen all week to see the next highly anticipated edition of Parlays and Teasers to determine if he should take the under in the Ravens Steelers game.   I also picture that would be more entertaining than whatever Moldova has to offer.   Does anyone know where Moldova is?  I had no clue and so evidently is sandwiched between economic powerhouses Romania and Ukraine.   That has to be quite possibly just the worst existence in the world.    Go Fuck yourself Moldova

VIDEO OF THE WEEK

The biggest problem I had with the blog is I would think of something to write and then I would immediately forget it.  I started writing things on the Notes app on the Iphone but sometimes I was too lazy to set reminders for myself.   At some point this week I saw a video and was convinced that was going to be the Vid of the Week but I cannot remember what it was.  So with that being said I’ll just have to go to plan B so here’s Rodney Dangerfield Standup for a few minutes.  More on him below.

 

STOCK CHART OF THE WEEK

Thought I would end the year on an Apple kick to just reinforce the point.

444317245458The Blue Line is Samsung’s Global Phone Shipments.  The Red Line is Apple’s Global Shipments.  Last quarter, Apple shipped 74.5 million Iphones.  Let that number sink in for a second.  74.5 million phones in 3 months.    That’s fucking insane.  Why you ask?  Obviously everyone knows that there was a huge build up for a new phone as the product cycle was due for an update.  The biggest push came from some key international markets like China, India, Brazil, Japan, Korea.  In many of these places the Iphone has either not really been available or had very limited availability.  This will only continue on the international side.   No other company in the world can make up that type of ground in 1 quarter.   Samsung may very well take back the top spot next quarter but the damage has been done.

Some of the AAPL bears talk about the downturn in the IPad sales as a negative as the new Iphone6 being a larger screen is cannibalizing the Ipad.  They are probably right with a bigger screen you probably don’t need an Ipad.   Tablet sales in general will suffer across the board with bigger phones.  However, that’s what makes AAPL strategy so unique.  They don’t care.  The same thing happened with the Ipod.  The Ipod use to be the biggest growth driver for the company.   The Ipod was cannibalized by Iphone and looked what happened.

On the fundamental side, given their level of current earnings, AAPL is trading at a multiple of 9 or 10 times earnings.   That’s basically the same as a Utility company which is ridiculous given the growth AAPL has.  The overall market, say the S&P 500, trades at about 17 times earnings.    So you can make the argument that AAPL is still cheap compared to the overall market.   If AAPL just started trading at a normal market multiple the price would be much higher.    #2 Their cash reserves ballooned to about $ 180 billion dollars.  This money is making nothing as rates are so low.   What could they do with that money?   More than likely they will return some of that money to shareholders through dividends and stock buy backs.  FYI….the more they buy back the stock the better.   Many investors wish they would increase their buyback by a large amount but they have been on a slow and steady approach.   They also could start making some acquisitions.  That is so much cash that if they wanted to buy a company outright they would be able to do that to 480 out of 500 companies in the S&P 500.  I think they will probably make some smaller acquisitions like they did with Beats headphones earlier in the year to just strengthen their current products.  Looks like the watch will be released sometime this year but I don’t really think that will be a huge needle mover.  If I’m wrong then it’s only a positive.  I think the real next big wave they are going to be on the rise will be Apple Pay.  If that becomes an easier way to pay then that’s only going to sell more phones while they finish up their next big product.  Who knows what that will be?  All I know is that Jony Ive is a genius and creates products that people flock to.  If that stops then the story changes but it doesn’t appear to me that stopping anytime soon.

Lastly, #2 pick Visa has been killing it the last few months after a while of stagnation.  They also just announced a 4-1 split.  Get In!

SUPER BOWL PICKS

The Line:  NE -1 vs. Seattle, O/U 47.5

This is the first Superbowl that I can remember where you haven’t really seen much in the way of the matchups between the teams on TV.  It’s been more about microphones and airpumps but it appears that both teams matchup pretty equally.   That’s about as much analysis I’m going to put into it.   I think whoever can run the ball better wins as I definitely feel like it’s going to be low scoring.  I think the total is way too high.  I have little to no confidence in Russell Wilson as I eluded to earlier.  I’ve never seen so much praise get thrown on a guy who isn’t good.   I also think that  Brady and Belichick being so pissed off that they are getting put through the ringer and will have a huge chip on their shoulders.   So for those reason Hal like the Pats and the under.  I’m going to Best Bet that under.   I would also lay down the parlay on that.   I’m going to throw a few prop bets below as well.  I will have a total of 4 straight up bets and 1 Parlay so this way if I lose all 4 stright up I will still finish the season total with a .500 record

PICK #1  NE -1

PICK #2 Under 47.5  (Best Bet)**

Parlay (NE -1 & Under 47.5)

Prop Bet #1  R Wilson Total Passing Yds Under 219.5  (-105)

Prop Bet #2  Which Coach will be shown first on TV after Kickoff.  Belichick -140   (I would assume he’s going to be shown far more than Carroll.  He is even money)

There are some real great ones like national gas prices on Monday vs Russell Wilson passing yards.  Or which team will win along with Punxsutawney Phil either seeing or not seeing his shadow.  Take a look for yourself:

http://sports.bovada.lv/sports-betting/football-player-props.jsp

 YTD RESULTS

Playoff Week 3 Results 0-2

ALL PLAYOFF RESULTS 4-6

Regular Season + Playoffs YTD Results 100-95

Best Bets YTD 23-16

Parlays YTD 1-1

Teasers YTD 2-0

Quote of the Week

I don’t know why I didn’t think of this earlier.  I should have just been putting down Rodney Dangerfield one liners the whole time for the quote of the week.  During one of the recent trips to a bachelor party or wedding I remember talking about the behind the scenes special about Caddyshack.   It was actually on the other day and it got me thinking of this.  Some quick notes about Caddyshack, the golf course it was shot at is now called Grande Oaks in Davie, FL.  It ‘s about a mile right down the street from my old house.  Never got to play there but still looks like a real nice track.   I didn’t know until watching that special that the pool scenes were shot at another course which is now called Plantation Preserve which was literally right across Broward Blvd from my old place and is still my favorite course down there.   The pool is no longer there though.

Sorry for that quick interjection.

This Week’s:

-“I told my wife the truth. I told her I was seeing a psychiatrist. Then she told me the truth: that she was seeing a psychiatrist, two plumbers, and a bartender.”

-Rodney Dangerfield

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