Playoff Week #3: Conference Championship Week

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The division round just did not fall our way like the wild card round did.  We went a disappointing 1-3.   Normally with shitty results like that I would be disappointed but I really still feel good about the losing picks.  My keys pretty much came true but just wasn’t on the right side of the lines.  Even in hindsight I don’t think I would have changed the bets and here’s why:

I absolutely nailed Peyton Manning looking like garbage.  He was clearly playing hurt but he is just not a clutch quarterback.  Never has been.  He is the best regular season QB in the history of the game but he is not the same player in the playoffs.  I’ve said in a million times, in the regular season there’s no one better but in a big spot I would rather have his brother.   This was our only victory last week.

If the Pats didn’t come out so flat and spot the Ravens 14 points then that game would have been an easy win vs. a close lose.   They moved the ball and basically ran the same 2 plays over and over again.

Carolina was driving to cover late in the game and Newton throws a pick 6 in the red zone.  Another analysis that was accurate.  I said if Newton turns the ball over then they wouldn’t cover and if he didn’t then it would be a no brainer.  He turned the ball over a couple of times and they stilled almost pulled out a cover.  That game was much closer than the final score indicated.  It was tight the majority of the game.

With the Packers / Cowboys game, I don’t think anyone knew what kind of shape that Aaron Rodgers was going to be in.  You could tell he wasn’t moving well so if I had know that I probably would have went with the Cowboys but no one knew what shape he was in except for Green Bay and they hid it pretty well.   Obviously another close game that just wasn’t on the right side of the line.

That’s gambling I guess.

QUICK LEAGUE NOTES

I love watching the coaching carousel go around and around.  It’s actually quite amusing.  It’s great that one team might want nothing to do with a guy and another think he is the savior.  I think the couple of moves that will be interesting to watch.  Rex Ryan to the Bills is funny on many levels.  His problem will be the same with the Jets being that he currently doesn’t have a quarterback.  John Fox to Da Bears is a good move for them and one that seems to make sense.  He’ll get that defense back to a better state but again you have a big question mark at QB there.  If Cutler gets his act together then he could have success there.

I again got to watch all of the games this weekend and obviously there was some big moments.  I guess the biggest would be “The Reversal.”  Let me get this out of the way.  I don’t like the rule and I think most observers would say that’s as close to a catch that you are going to get.  However, that’s the current rule and I think they got the call correct according to the rule.  That doesn’t necessarily mean I agree with it.   I would think they will take a look at the rule but I really don’t see how you can change it.  The way it’s written now there’s not much room for error.  You have to maintain control all the way through.  Once you start opening that up it can be looked in too many ways.   I would like to see them change it but I just don’t know how they are going to make it work.

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 WEEKLY RANT

untitledaI haven’t watched Biggest Loser in a while but I saw that ex NFL QB Scott Mitchell is on this season and he weighed in at 366.  That’s fucking crazy to me.  This guy was a professional athlete for Christ sake.  How do you let yourself go like that?  It sounds like there is some sob story behind which I don’t really care to find out about.  I totally understand packing on some pounds as you get older.  In fact my own waste line is a fucking disaster but what the fuck man.   I would think once you hit 300 a bell would go off and you would maybe start doing something about it.  I’m sure he has some money as he signed some terribly large and underserving contracts.   To give you perspective, former Offensive tackle Damien Woody is on the show and he weighed in at 388.  But he’s a offensive lineman.  I’m sure he played his whole career well over 300 lbs. so it’s not a stretch for him to be in that stratosphere..

VIDEO OF THE WEEK

I’m back on the comedian Video of the Week kick.  It’s Bill Burr so you know it’s good.  It’s from a Conan interview that was on I guess at the beginning of the season.  I didn’t even know that Conan was still on.  It’s well worth 3 minutes.  In other Bill Burr news he was a new stand up special on Netflix which I caught last week.  It’s real good too but the whole thing is in black and white which I didn’t really care for but overall a good special.

STOCK CHART OF THE WEEK

cotw-2015-0119-chartVery interesting chart of Gold.  It’s basically been a straight down move for the precious metal for over a year now.  It’s starting to show a little stability however the strong dollar will keep a cap on it for the most part.  However, there will be a time in the future where gold will have it’s day again especially once all of the central banks maneuvering comes to roost.

CHAMPIONSHIP PICKS

These fucking lines are tough.  They are making you almost have to take the road teams.   Both lines are -7 to the home teams.  That’s a ton of points at this point in the season.

Patriots -7 vs. Colts 

I don’t know what it is but I just think that the Colts are that team that people have overlooked and will make it to the Super Bowl.  The Pats really haven’t looked all that great at times and they are so limited with weapons.  Andrew Luck is the next great player in this league and he can will his team to a win.  I would think the best risk reward bet this week would be the Colts moneyline as I think they can win straight up.   Chuck Strong is such an emotional guy that’s been playing a role in the last few games.  Give me the boys from Indy with the Points. PICK Colts +7 

Seattle -7 vs. Pack 

The elephant in the room is obviously how mobile will Aaron Rodgers be.  He had one of those Willis Reed moments last week where he gutted out a very nice performance but he was clearly limited.  If he is the same as he was vs. the Cowboys then it’s going to be a long day for the Pack.  I would assume that Seattle is going to bring as much pressure as they can and use their physical corners to lock up the GB wide receivers.   PICK Seahawks -7

 YTD RESULTS

Playoff Week 2 Results 1-3

ALL PLAYOFF RESULTS 4-4

Regular Season + Playoffs YTD Results 100-93

Best Bets YTD 23-16

Parlays YTD 1-1

Teasers YTD 2-0

Quote of the Week

This Week’s:

-“I was in a bathroom stall and someone had written ‘For a good time call this number’ so I called it.  It was a petting zoo.  It was a great time.   They had Ducks.

-Zach Smith

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