Playoff Week 1: Wild Card Weekend

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Welcome back all to a new playoff edition of Parlays and Teasers.  I hope everyone has had a nice holiday season and it’s great to be back.  I took a nice little siesta from the website.  There were a few reasons for this.  First and probably most important, time during the holidays obviously gets more and more hard to come by.  I just couldn’t find time to get thoughts to pen and paper before the games were starting.  I find it fascinating that the guys who write serious blogs have the time to write so frequently.    Secondly, I found myself really struggling to pick any games.  I was rally starting to have too many doubts.   It is actually quite reminiscent of being on an extremely hot blackjack table and then realizing that it’s turning on you.  Many of you degenerates that read this blog can relate to this.   There are sometimes during a silly run of cards where you can do no wrong.  Splits, double downs…It doesn’t matter you are going to win the majority of hands.    There’s nothing better than that feeling, the booze is flowing, people are cursing and screaming and have everyone is having a grand old time.

Then all of a sudden something changes.

It could be a new dealer, it could be some douche not hitting or staying when they should be that kills the vibe or it could be you have to take a piss or a call.  I got the same feeling back in week 14.  I was on about a 2 month tear winning at a 70% clip.  I knew that wasn’t sustainable so instead of still sitting at that table and losing all the gains I was able to step back and reevaluate.   Week 14 I just had no idea what was going on.  I decided to take a step back and let the games play out and then focus on the playoffs.  Overall, in the regular season, I went 96-88 on all picks and 23-16 on Best bets(59%).  It was a solid year but not as spectacular as it could have been.

QUICK LEAGUE NOTES

And then there were 12.   No real surprises except for maybe Carolina getting on a little roll and taking the NFC South.  That’s not really surprising considering the records of that division.    There are some decent games this wild card weekend.    The nice thing about having such few games I can throw my 2 cents in and be a little more detailed on each picks, ala previous years of P&T.

 WEEKLY RANT

So this past week was in essence the end of my use of the Direct TV Sunday NFL Ticket as obviously all of the playoff games are shown on national TV going forward.  I wanted to use the opportunity to compare costs of having it vs not.   The costs for the season of the package is about $250.  At first glance that seems a little high but when you dig deep down then it really isn’t that bad.   Most teams have a handful of games on Monday, Sunday or Thursday night Football.   Using my NY Football Giants as an example, I think they had 5 primetime games this year which leads to 11 games with the potential of needing the Ticket to be able to watch since I out of the local NY/NJ viewing area.   In fact, since they were pretty terrible I don’t recall them ever being a game of the week where they were a national game so let’s just say I needed the Ticket to watch 10 of their game to make the math easy.   So let’s first review the costs of 10 trips to the sportsbar.   This is the part where it can be up for debate.   You could go economically and just drink beer specials and not eat anything.  If that’s the case you could probably get out of there only spending say $20 if there are bucket specials or something but that sounds so boring.  I would think though on average you’re going to spending about $40-50 per trip with tip and all that jazz.  I mean your there for 4 hours for cry pete.   You easily could spend more but for argument sake let’s say that’s an average for a normal Sunday.   Let’s call it $500 for the season, could be more or less.  So going back to the review of the NFL ticket.  It’s $250 plus the cost of whatever you would consume at home.  I totally drank more for the later games than I would for the early games.  Side note, what’s funny is that is the exact opposite before I became a grown up.  I use to drink so much more for the early games because that’s what you do when you have no responsibilities.  In any event, I would seem to buy a case of beer once every 2 weeks.  Case of Coors light is about $15 give or take.  Let’s call that 5 cases of beer for those 10 games and were looking at $75.  I would normally eat whatever was around the house and never really bought something specific for game days at home.  Total cost of NFL Ticket:  $325.  Now the cost is only the first part of it.  The second part and something that is way more important is the ability to tape games in case you weren’t going to be around for kickoff.  I know for a few of those games I was either running late or maybe driving back to the house and was just able to tape while being careful not to see scores or anything.  It’s great blowing through the commercials and being able to catch up by halftime.    I think the cost and flexibility of the ticket is well worth it if you are not in the main viewing area of your teams.

I got pulled over the other day in a town called Marshville in the middle of the nowhere in NC.  Now I was speeding, he said I was doing 53 in a 35.  Also, I still have my old Florida plates that I haven’t changed over yet.  That FL registration expired in February of 2014.    For some reason the cop left me off with a warning only.  The lesson I leaned that day was I can speed without having proper state registration and there are no consequences for that.

Lastly, Where did the phrase “broke the internet” come from?  I heard a few times the last couple of weeks and it’s like hearing nails on a chalk board.  I first heard it when Kim Kardashian posed for some photoshopped pictures of her ass and cans.   Please do not say this phrase.

VIDEO OF THE WEEK

I’m back on big people falling kick

MY WEEKLY FANTASY LINEUP (SALARY CAP 60K)

QB  B Roethlisberger  $8500

RB  J Hill $7400

RB J Harris $5600

WR T Smith $7100

WR A Brown $9200

WR G Tate $6800

TE C Fleener $5500

K  M Nugent $4600

D  Panthers $5300

It so much easier to put a lineup together with less guys to choose form.

STOCK CHART OF THE WEEK

s-p-case-shiller-20-city-home-price-index-change-from-a-year-prior-s-p-case-shiller-20-city-home-price-index-change-from-a-year-prior_chartbui

Not really a stock chart but interesting look at home prices which seem to be leveling off a little but still near multi year highs.   I wish I had a bunch of cash burning a hole in my pocket in 2008 to buy a shit ton of real estate.  Would have been a nice trade.

WILD CARD PICKS

Panthers -6.5 vs. Cardinals

Even though the Cards are a crazy 11-5 ATS this year I just cant see them winning on the road with a 3rd string QB.  Carolina has got all the momentum and are home.  PICK  Panthers -6.5

Steelers -3 vs. Ravens

I’m not sure if this line has moved but Le’Veon Bell was just declared out so I’m going to take the Ravens to cover and all the Steelers skill players in Fantasy to make up for the loss of Bell.  PICK Ravens +3

Colts -3.5 vs. Bengals

To be honest neither team really deserves any boasts of confidence as both have been so up and down to close the season.  I’ll take Andrew Luck at home as I think he’s far superior to Dalton.  PICK Colts -3.5

Cowboys -7 vs. Lions

As much as it pains me to say, the Cowboys are probably the hottest team in the league right now.  I’m hoping their bubble gets burst but I don’t think it’s going to be this week.  It’s a big number to cover but they’ve been a good bet since November.  PICK Cowboys -7

REGULAR SEASON YTD RESULTS

Week 14 Results 7-8

Regular Season YTD Results 96-88

Week 14 Best Bets 0-3

Best Bets YTD 23-16

Parlays YTD 1-1

Teasers YTD 2-0

Quote of the Week

This week’s

“I just moved into my new house – so I had to go door to door to notify my neighbors that I am registered sex offender………I’m not really but it will keep those fucking kids out of my yard.”

– Comedian Scott Bolander

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