Week 12: A little taste of reality

honeymooners“One of these days Alice, one of these days.”  One of these days I’ll be able to put solid back to back weeks together.  Last week did not end up that way.  We went a hard fought 4-11 ATS.  I thought there were some solid picks in there but just couldn’t get it to go our way.   I thought we were going to be fine as going into the later games we were .500 and then proceeded to lose every from there on out.  We picked the SU winners OK going 9-6 and I was sure the Pats would pull it out to at least salvage something but wasn’t meant to be, although that call at the end of that game was spotty.  Nothing left to do but to pick yourself up, dust yourself off and keep grinding.   Another intersting slate of games coming up this week.

QUICK LEAGUE NOTES

We’re coming into the last quarter of the season and I think the league has to be really happy with what transpired so far this year.  The goal was parity and for basically every team to have a shot at the playoffs.   The league is a hodgepodge of mediocre teams fighting it out for those last few spots.  Obviously you have your shoe ins like Denver, KC, NO & Seattle.   Cincy & Indy look to be in good shape but are so inconsistent that you can’t consider definites just yet.  After that the last 6 spots are wide open.  The NFL regular reason is become the more and more meaningless as it appears 9-7 will probably get in a wild card in both conferences.  9-7 might also win a division or 2.  The NFL has become “just get into the tournament” regular season and hope you are playing your best football at the end of the year.   First round byes, while are nice to have, mean nothing.  Wild Cards are regularly winning multiple road playoff games and advancing to the Super Bowl over the last half dozen years.  So as long you are mediocre enough to win just slightly over half your games you have a very good chance of making the playoffs and making a run.   The days of those 14-2 teams making it to the Super Bowl are over.   The questions of resting players will start surfacing soon.  In fact, Denver and or KC will have a very interesting dilemma coming up.  They are for all intensive purposes locks to make it with one of them probably getting home field throughout.   Let’s assume Denver wins next week against KC to own the tiebreaker and can cruise to home field say after week 15.  Do they rest Manning or some starters?  Time after time that strategy backfires but how do you play a 90 year old gimpy QB in a meaningless end of the regular season game.  It will be very interesting how everything shakes out.

WEEKLY RANT

It’s the 50th anniversary of JFK being assassinated this week.  I was always kind of into the cover up stuff, the “magic” bullet and all of that shit.  The movie “JFK” was really good and threw everything into a frenzy when it came out.  It’s fascinating to think that Joe Pesci and Tommy Lee Jones, some Cubans, and the mob all scheming together to kill JFK.  It kinda of sucks that everything in that movie is made up and none of it was true. I should have known something was up when Joe Pesci is doing coke in a diaper in one scene.

You would think that it would take some great scheme like they describe in the movie to kill a president.  You wouldn’t think some punk 24 year old redneck would be able to pull something like that off.  But since there were no rules back in the 60’s he could.  It didn’t help matters that a guy killed the guy who killed the president.  All this did was fan the flames of the controversy.   Again, back in the 60’s you can evidently walk into the police station freely and shoot someone who just shot the president.  If that happened today, I’m sure some cunt would put on facebook or twitter.

#obamasbeenshot

then an hour later

#theguywhoshotobamahasbeenshot

YOUTUBE VIDEO OF THE WEEK

This is youth soccer but pretty impressive display nonetheless.  Spin moves in any sport are great.

STAND UP COMEDY CLIP OF THE WEEK

This technically isn’t a stand up show but Louis CK does some of his best work on talk shows.  This one is from way back with Conan’s original show when probably no one knew who Conan was let alone Louis CK.   I love the last minute of this.

HIGHLY RANKED FANTASY PLAYER THAT WILL SHIT THE BED THIS WEEK

My prediction for the second week in a row was Matt Stafford.  He exceed my expectations but I think there was an asterisk.   He only threw for about 30 yards after halftime.  It was about the same time the Pitt coaches must of had a meeting.  It would probably go something like this.  Hey you see that really tall, fast guy with really Johnson on his back.  Let put like 4 dudes on him cause he’s killing us and they really don’t have any other receivers.

Actual Line: 19/46, 362 YDS, 2 TD 1 INT for 20 standard points

Prediction: 20-32, 275 YDS, 1 TD 1 INT, 13 standard fantasy points (Loss)

This week’s selection is another QB:

Cam Newton ranked #5 in both Rotoworld & Sportsline

He’s a boom or bust type guy and it usually depends on what he does with his feet.   I don’t think he’ll do much through the air.

Prediction 13-24, 201 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT.  8 carries, 30 YDS.  11 fantasy points

WEEK 12 PICKS

CHI @ STL (-1.5)

I almost called the exact score of the Warehouse game last week and I like them again this week.  I think the Rams are getting way too much credit with this line from blowing out the Colts.  That Robbie Gould is a kicker that doesn’t get anywhere near the pub he should get.  I was watching that game last week and he nailed like a 40 something yarder dead center and it looked like a monsoon.  That dude is pretty money.   I think he kicks them to a W again this week.  Pick:  Warehouses

Warehouses 20 Rams 17

NYJ @ BAL (-4.5)

Why do I ever pick the Jets?  What’s crazy is if the playoffs started today they would be in as a 6 seed.  Will they pull their one bad week one good week garbage?  I don’t think so.  Baltimore is a tough place to play and Geno Smith has hit the proverbial Rookie Wall.  The Ravens don’t score but I don’t think they have to score much.  It I was a betting man,  I would love and love some more the under(39.5).  Pick: Ravens

Ravens 17 Jets 9

PIT @ CLE (-1.5)

The Steelers are the Giants of the NFC.  They started like shit and have righted the ship to at least make themselves relevant.  I think they get it done this week to creep closer to a playoff berth.  Big Ben has played better in recent weeks.   Pick: Steelers

Steelers 21 Browns 16

JAC @ HOU (-10.5)

Brutal game for all involved.  Houston is the AFC version of the Falcons.  They have packed in it and waiting until next year. Pick: Jags

Jags 21 Texans 20

TB @ DET (-9.5)

Seems like such a trap line to take the Bucs and I would think with that many points most people would take that.  That includes me.  We’ll see if Revis Island can hold up Megatron to less than absurd numbers.  Pick: Bucs

Lions 28 Bucs 24

MIN @ GB (-4.5)

Packers are sinking fast without Aaron Rodgers.  Scott Tolzien has a pretty live arm.  Some of his throws last week were pretty impressive.  However, he’s a young guy that will make too make mistakes.  AP due for a big game.  Pick: Vikes

Vikes 21 Pack 20

SD @ KC (-4.5)

I’m shocked at this line.  Granted KC finally lost and maybe they look past them for next week’s rematch against Denver but San Diego is terrible. Pick: Chefs

Chefs 23 Chargers 17

CAR @ MIA (+4.5)

I really want to take Miami cause I am just a non beliver in Cam Newton but that Carolina D appears just a touch too good.  Pick: Panthers

Panthers 27 Fins 20

IND @ ARI (-2.5)

Is Arizona for real?  Maybe, they certainly have played better the last few weeks.  I’ll stick with them for another week.  Pick: Cards

Cards 30 Colts 27

TEN @ OAK (-0.5)

This is essentially a pick em.  I’m on the Matt Mcgloin express train to a victory.  I’m not sure if he was touched by Jerry Sandusky or not at Penn St. but I believe in him regardless.  Side Note: Sandusky’s favorite pick up line to little boys, “Tennessee?  You’re the only 10 I see.”  OK, that was in bad taste.  Pick: Raiders

Raiders 23 Titans 20 

DAL @ NYG (-2.5)

GMen on a 4 game win streak against not exactly a murders row of QB’s.  However, since the acquisition of Jon Beason the defense has played much better and since the acquisition of John “The Terminator” Conner the run game has been able to contribute especially in short yardage where they are much improved since the beginning of the year.   This will be a typical back and forth Dallas Giants game.  Last time they turned the ball over 6 times.  I think that will be the answer.  Whoever turns the ball over less wins.  Pick: Cowboys

Giants 24 Cowboys 23

DEN @ NE (+2.5)

Call me crazy but I thought I had that Pats/Carolina game pegged last week.  A break here or there and it’s a different story.  I’m sticking with my guns and picking a small upset.  Pats are 5-0 at home and very rarely lose 2 in a row and even more rarely get points in 2 straight.  Pick: Pats

Pats 34 Broncos 30

SF @ WAS (+5.5)

RG III is going through a rough stretch right now as he’s getting beat up for decision making especially last week’s game ending pick.   It just looks like he’ll need another year to get fully healthy.  It’s also possible he just isn’t as good and the league is starting to figure him out.  Awfully similar to his counterpart on San Francisco who is also struggling badly.   Here is another under that I like (47.5).  Pick: 49ers

49ers 24 Redskins 17

LAST WEEK & YTD RESULTS

Week 11 ATS Record 4-11 (Fuck No)

Season ATS Record 47-52

Week 11 SU Record 9-6

Season SU Record 61-38

Family Guy Quote

Dr. Hartman: Well, I caution you, that getting the mumps as an adult could result in serious complications. In some cases the symptoms could spread to the testicular glands.
Peter: Big deal, so I wear socks.
Dr. Hartman: Mr. Griffin, your testicles are not on your feet.
Peter: Oh, where are they?
Dr. Hartman: Under your penis.
Peter: Are you kidding? I always thought those were two little sandbags to keep floodwaters from floating into my bum. No, no. I’m just poking at your funny bone. I am quite alarmed.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: