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Monthly Archives: October 2013

Jeffersonss “Well we’re movin on up, To the east side. To a deluxe apartment in the sky. Movin on up,To the east side. We finally got a piece of the pie!”

I’m doing a little shuffle as we speak.  The best part is the wife’s name in the Jefferson’s is Florida.  That’s awesome, how did that not catch on in the baby naming world?  Well, there is Flo Rida but that doesn’t count.  Who wouldn’t want to name their kid after a state that’s hot as fuck overflowing with homeless and drug addicts.  Shocking it didn’t catch on.  (Side Note, the weather actually as been very nice here lately)

Our first positive ATS week going a solid 8-5.   Some real solid picks, almost picked the exact scores of both the NE/MIA & NO/BUF.    Although 8-5 isn’t anything to write home about, it was a week I desperately need to get rolling here into the second half of the season.   I feel a winning streak coming on in this edition.  Also be forewarned, this will be a heavy you tube blog this week.  I think you’ll enjoy though.

I was realizing today I don’t really do anything any more.  Play some golf on Saturdays but that’s really the extent of what I do outside of going to work.  I need to start doing more I think.  It not for the lack of not wanting to do anything but sometimes you just need to break the routine.   Waiting for this kid to pop out probably has something to do with it and I’m sure I will be begging for the time where I didn’t have to do anything.  In the meantime, I’ve been watching a ton of game shows for some reason.  Wheel of Fortune then Jeopardy from 7pm-8pm have pretty much become a staple in the Hal residence.  Family Feud has made multiple appearances as well.  The newer ones with Steve Harvey actually aren’t that bad.  The other hosts I just tune out.  I’ve noticed myself really critiquing the game strategy or stupid moves from the players so much where it’s like I’m watching a football game.  I literally pop up from my chair like a ref just threw a questionable pass interference call.  It drives me crazy that these people go through all the effort to get on the show and then do something ridiculous.  You don’t see many blunders in Jeopardy because those people are usually smart.  The worst thing is when they don’t bet enough on daily doubles.  That’s about the worst thing you can do in Jeopardy but if it’s a category your not strong in then at least it’s acceptable.   The other 2 shows usually don’t have the brightest people however.  Let me give you some examples.

Wheel of Fortune

Magic Sand??????????

Just looking at the freeze frame of this one you just wonder how this could be.

Family Feud

There’s nothing better than the buzzer on a zero in all of game show sound effects.

YOU TUBE VIDEO OF THE WEEK

I told you this would be a heavy You Tube edition.  The one thing I’ve realized is the more of these videos I put in the less I have to write.   Like I said earlier I don’t do much so I don’t have much to talk about.  I’m scraping the bottom of the barrel with game show talk.  Luckily I don’t have just 1 video but rather 3.   With all the talk of game shows it got me thinking of the best game show Family Guy Videos of all time.

Lois gets 199 points.  Now Peter just needs 1 point to bring home the Bacon in round 2

How do I pass? Just the best

Lastly, Peter on Wheel of Fortune….I miss when they would make you pick the prizes in the showcase.  They should bring some form of that back.

STAND UP COMEDY CLIP OF THE WEEK

HIGHLY RANKED FANTASY PLAYER THAT WILL SHIT THE BED THIS WEEK

Last week’s selection of AJ Green wasn’t a rousing success but it wasn’t an epic failure.  I would say he still kinda shit the bed considering his QB threw for 5TD’s.   He caught 3 balls for 115 so 11.5 standard points.  Good not great.  He didn’t set the world on fire but didn’t totally shit the bed.  I would probably call that a push.

This week I’m going to go big.  He won’t shit the bed but I think he might be limited and he’s the #1 ranked QB this week across the board.

Drew Brees @ NYJ #1 ranked QB on Sportsline & Rotoworld

You might be saying I’m nuts, Brees just threw for 5TD’s.  He did that at home in the dome.  #1 Looking at Sunday’s weather in East Rutherford it appears winds will be in the mid teens. #2 Rob Ryan is the D coordinator of the Saints and so I think that Rex Ryan’s knows his brother’s D so he is going to try to control the ball to keep Brees off the field.  Plus the Jets have been on the 1 good week, 1 bad week train.  This week should be a good week hypothetically.

Forecast:  20-30, 300 YDS, 2 TD 1 INT, 19 standard fantasy points

WEEK 9’s Picks

CIN @ MIA (+3.5)

The last thing the Dolphins needed was something like this Jonathan Martin thing.  Details are sketchy but it seems like he was made fun of so he went home.  The fair weather sports fan down here in south florida will love that one.

Bengals 28 Fins 17

KC @ BUF (+3.5)

I’m really looking forward to the week of picking the Chefs to lose because I think once they lose it will start a streak of a couple in a row.   It’s supposed to be chilly so I think I’ll hold off for another week as I think that type of game plays into their hands.

Chefs 17 Bills 13

SD @ WAS (+1.5)

I’m going to go with a strategy to pick the favorites of teams who were coming off byes last week.  In a perfect world, since I hate the Chargers and they are coming across the country I would normally pick against them.  But I’ll go with this strategy and see how it goes.

Bolts 27 Skins 24

NO @ NYJ (+6.5)

The first four games so far have been home dogs.  Although I don’t think the Jets will get blown out like last week, I don’t think they will cover either.

Saints 24 Jets 13

ATL @ CAR (-7.5)

There are many disappointing teams this year but I think the Falcons have to be very much on top of the list.  They look horrible.  Nobody is really talking about how bad they are and that’s shocking.  They were a Super Bowl contender.  Carolina is up and coming but I don’t think they are “there” yet.  However, Atlanta looks like a shell of themselves and are a candidate just to pack it in.

Panthers 28 Falcons 20

TEN @ STL (+3.5)

Another home dog and another team coming off a bye that’s favored.  I’m going to play that strategy across the board regardless on how I feel about the game.

Titans 19 Rams 14

MIN @ DAL (-10.5)

Wow that cowboys game last week was crazy.  I’m going to assume they bounce back from that.  But who knows with that team.

Boys 30 Vikes 17

TB @ SEA (-16.5)

Huge mismatch…I have no problem laying those points.  I need to learn to stop laying those points with Seattle when they play inside their division.  Outside of it they are usually ok.

Hawks 31 Bucs 9

PHI @ OAK (-2.5)

Nick Foles is back but the Eagles are pretty bad.  Oakland isn’t great but I’ll take that line at home.

Raiders 27 Eagles 21

PIT @ NE (-6.5)

Really tough game to call, this would be a great game to tease in both directions.

Pats 28 Steelers 20

BAL @ CLE (+2.5)

Another favored team off bye along with another home dawg.  It’s weird how this keeps coming up like this.

Ravens 19 Browns 13

IND @ HOU (+2.5)

2 teams coming off the buy so I will go with who’s favored.

Colts 24 Texans 16

CHI @ GB (-10.5)

That’s a lot of points to give in a big rivalry game especially on a Monday night.  The problem for da bears is what kind of performance will you get out of your back up.  That will be the difference.  I think he will be good enough to cover.

Pack 33 Microwearhouses 24

LAST WEEK & YTD RESULTS

Week 7 ATS Record 8-5

Season ATS Record 26-31

Week 7 SU Record 9-4

Season SU Record 38-19

Family Guy Quote

“With great mustache, comes great responsibility” -Peter Griffin

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field

Week 7 was another lackluster week ATS with many close calls.  The SU total was acceptable but could be better.   The problem as I see are some of these crazy spreads and it really doesn’t get much easier this week.  There are 3 spreads of double digits to go along with 7 more of over a TD.  You have to take into account backdoor covers on some of these games.  There have been a couple of near miss backdoor covers so it’s prevalent in my mind when making picks.   The NFL wants parity and I think they have gotten it to an extent on the field but definitely not in the sportsbook.  I don’t recall a season when the spreads have been so large for this many weeks in a row without tightening up.  I think as we get closer to crunch time the lines will start to compress but for the time being it’s probably going to be tough sledding.

Injuries were another huge story this week.  Starting QB’s going down for multiple weeks or even for the year.  It seems like guys were dropping like flies the last few weeks so that makes the picture even a little less clear.  It’s been a wild season so far and don’t see any reason for that to stop.

The injuries really got me thinking.  I understand that the game is very fast paced and injuries happen but it really seems like the last few years the number of knee injuries are just at a ridiculous level.  If you go back maybe 10 years you would didn’t see this level of knee or hamstring injuries.  If you go back 20 years it would probably be just a fraction of what it is now.   Many of these injuries are happening when no one is even around the guy.  I think so much of it is this new artificial turf shit.  I still don’t understand why every field isn’t grass.  I’m assuming it’s because of the cost which sounds stupid given that the NFL generated billions of dollars.  You would think they would have a fucking landscaping budget built in.  I know that some of the grass fields turn to shit in the winter time but you can’t convince me it has to be that way.  If they can put a fucking hockey rink in these outdoor stadiums then I’m sure there is a way to better take care of the fields in the colder weather cities.  I think it breeds a much better version of football where running the ball and stopping the run are a priority.  If you do those things well then you can do various things like play action on offense or bringing exotic blitzes on defense.  I’m so afraid that the game is going to turn into this gimmicky shit you see all the time in the college game.  You’ll just see these vanilla game plans with scores of 52-50 with just all passing or the terrible read option.  I’m sorry games like that just aren’t fun to watch.  A high scoring game is great if it’s a mix of good football.  If a wide receiver gets the ball in the backfield on a designed run that’s not a reverse then I check out.   Maybe I’m getting old but I don’t like the direction the game is headed.

YOU TUBE VIDEO OF THE WEEK

Jim Leyland just retired the other day and this is a great clip of him chewing out Barry Bonds in spring training when they were both with the Pirates.  Two things about this clip, #1 you might want to turn up the volume as long as your not at work or in front of small children. #2 Barry Bonds never took steroids.

STAND UP COMEDY CLIP OF THE WEEK

Another new segment cause I thought the ones from last week were a decent addition.  This is a pretty easy one, when you talking about stand up starting with George Carlin is a pretty much no brainer.  You’ve probably seen this but give it 9 minutes again.   Joe bless You!

HIGHLY RANKED FANTASY PLAYER THAT WILL SHIT THE BED THIS WEEK

This segment turned out to be a rousing success for old Hal predicting Adrian Peterson would shit the bed despite being the #1 ranked running back on the main fantasy sites.  AP was bottled up the entire game scoring only 5.6 points.  For some reason Leslie Frazier decided to have Josh Freeman throw the ball over 50 times.  What do we have in store this week?  This one was really tough as there are a bunch of juicy matchups for the highly ranked and I didn’t want to slide too far down the rankings to find someone.  I want it to be a must start player and this week I’m going with AJ Green vs. the Jets.

Ranked #3 WR on both Sportsline & Rotoworld

I think the Jets D will give Andy Dalton enough problems to where he won’t be able to put the same type of numbers he’s had the last 2 games.  Interestingly, Green has had 3 monster games this year.  All of them have come on the road.  He only has 1 TD at home and his best yardage output was 61 yards.  They are at home this week.

Forecast

6 catches, 71 yards 0 TD’s.  7.1 standard fantasy points

WEEK 8’s PICKS

CAR @ TB (+6.5)

Since Tampa is winless they need to do anything to win a game.   This would be my game plan if I was Greg Schiano.  Since they have this outbreak of MRSA on their team, the plan would consist of informing the opponent after every play that he just came in contact with the infection.   Do this play after play.  I bet you sometime in the second half someone will short arm a pass or something and maybe you can get a game changing turnover.  That my friends is what you call game planning.

Panthers 21 Bucs 13

SF @ JAC (In London) (+17.5)

Speaking of grass fields, this game is being played on the pitch in Wembley Stadium.  I’m convinced San Fran plays down to its competition and those game out there always play a little slower because of the length of the grass.   I have absolutely no faith in Jacksonville but I feel a backdoor cover coming on this game for some reason.

9ers 28 Jags 13

MIA @ NE (-7.5)

I would think NE is going to be pissed at giving away that game to the Jets last week and they usually don’t lose 2 in a row especially at home or in the division.  After the Fins good start they have really struggled finishing games.

Pats 30 Fins 20

DAL @ DET (-3.5)

This would be a game I would have no desire trying to pick.  I can’t get a read on Detroit to save my life and you never know how Dallas is going to play.

Boys 28 Lions 27

CLE @ KC (-7.5)

Jason Campbell is starting for the Browns which is reason enough to continue picking KC

Chefs 17 Browns 6

NYG @ PHI (-6.5)

It was nice to see the GMEN get out of the winless column but even being a homer like I am, that was just a brutal game to watch.  Leslie Frazier basically gave the game to them.  The Giants also caught some breaks with not losing some turnovers that were there for the taking.  The Philly QB situation is a little hazy as it looks like Vick will start but it hasn’t been officially announced.  I’m going under the assumption Vick plays and I’ll take the Eagles to win but Giants to cover.  If he doesn’t then I wouldn’t trust Matt Barkley to be able to do anything and would have picked a Giant out right win.

Eagles 27 GMEN 23

BUF @ NO (-7.5)

The Bills got a nice win last week but I don’t see Thad Lewis being able to do anything in the Superdome.

Saints 31 Bills 17

PIT @ OAK (+3.5)

Pitt has played their way back into at least conversation of playoffs but I don’t think they are capable of beating anyone by more than a field goal.

Steelers 20 Raiders 17

NYJ @ CIN (-6.5)

As much as I hate the Jets and Rex Ryan you have to give them credit for last week’s win vs the Pats.  That will be just about enough of praising the Jets.

Bengals 24 Jets 14

ATL @ ARI (-2.5)

Atlanta is a mess of injuries.  I can honestly say the following statement.  I haven’t seen even 20 seconds of an Arizona game this year so I have no idea about them.  I know Carson Palmer has almost as many INT’s (13) as Eli and I thought that would be impossible.

Falcons 24 Cards 20

WAS @ DEN (-13.5)

This is an interesting one.  I’m assume the line that is this high under the assumption that Manning will be pissed losing in Indy and will take it out on Washington who’s defense isn’t very good.   This I agree with but the problem is Denver’s D isn’t very good either and I think Washington can keep it under 2 TD’s.

Broncos 38 Skins 28

GB @ MIN (+7.5)

Minnesota looks like a mess and I believe they will start Christian Ponder instead of Josh Freeman due to a concussion.  I don’t think it matters.

Pack 28 Vikes 14 

SEA @ STL (+10.5)

The Rams are another mash unit.  I heard they called both Tim Tebow and Brett Farve.  I don’t know if that is accurate or not but I think that goes to show what is thought about Kellen Clemens.

Hawks 30 Rams 12

LAST WEEK & YTD RESULTS

Week 7 ATS Record 6-9

Season ATS Record 18-26

Week 7 SU Record 10-5

Season SU Record 29-15

Family Guy Quote

“Aw, the South! Isn’t that the place where the black guys are lazy, and the white guys are just as lazy, but they’re mad at the black guys for being so lazy.” -Peter Griffin

sportsbook

Ahh the sportsbook…just look at that place, where dreams can come true and be crushed all in the same room.  Sportsbooks should be mandated by law in every city and every state.  There are times where you just have to tip your hat to the bookmakers and just be impressed by their accuracy sometimes.  This week was one of those times.  There were a few games where the spreads ended up being basically right on the money.  NE/NO, GB/BALT, SF/ARI and you can even throw the CHI/NYG game as examples.  We had the winners pretty much pegged going 12-3 SU but couldn’t replicate that momentum ATS going under .500 with a few tough last second losses.  I think we’re on the right track though and it was just one of those weeks that could have gone either way.

Halloween is coming up in a few weeks even though I’ve been seeing ghosts and tombstones on people’s lawns for what seems like a month already.  I don’t know when the preparation for these holidays started getting earlier and earlier.  I was in Costco the other day and saw Christmas trees on display which I’m sure were probably there in August.  What the fuck is that?   If you’re in the market for a fake Christmas tree do you really need to pick one up before fucking Labor Day.  I bought a fake tree last year and went to the store a few weeks before Christmas like a normal human being.    I brought that fucker home and decorated that shit.  Then I slapped that shit and that shit is good(solid jerky boy reference right there).  I didn’t need to plan months in advance so I can lug a hug box home and then do nothing with it besides stare at it in the garage.   Another example of this was the super market here started selling Halloween candy 2 weeks ago.  They were BOGO (That’s Publix lingo for buy one get one) so I picked up a few bags since I am half Jewish now so naturally I can’t resist a good deal on anything.  BOGO shit is my favorite thing in the world.  The whole allure of buying one and getting one sends me crazy.   If I see a BOGO sign next to the Peanut Butter Nature Valley Granola bars you better get the fuck out of my way because I would clothesline my grandmother to get to the last 2 boxes.

YOU TUBE VIDEO OF THE WEEK

I wanted to add another segment to the blog each week and saw this video. It’s not great but I’m kinda throwing this together pretty quickly.   I wish I had more time to find something funny but this is OK for now and I’ll do better next time.  Black people and any type of water is always a nice combination.

HIGHLY RANKED FANTASY PLAYER THAT WILL SHIT THE BED THIS WEEK

Another new segment……I read all these sites with the rankings on each week’s fantasy matchup and inevitably there always at least one highly ranked guy that doesn’t live up to the hype.  My goal is to sniff that player out so in case you have him you can make arrangements to bench him(which you would never do).

Adrian Peterson vs. NYG

Ranked #1 for RB’s on Rotoworld & Sportsline

You might be saying to yourself, this appears that Hal is being a Homer.  However, I must question as to why he is ranked so high just from a stats perspective.  First look at the stats from the last few games and I think it tells an interesting story.   Last 3 game the Giants have faced the following RB’s.   Jamal Charles, LeSean McCoy & Matt Forte.  All 3 stud #1 RB’s.  They did the following:

Charles: 18 carries, 65 yards,  5 catches, 62 yards 1 TD

McCoy: 20 carries 46 yards, 6 catches, 46 yards 1 TD

Forte: 19 carries, 67 yards, 6 catches, 44 yards 0 TD

All 3 pretty much had no success on the ground but were able to get some catches However, that’s not AP’s game.  It also appears that Josh Freeman will be his QB so he will be handicapped there too.  I’m not saying that AP won’t put up points but to be ranked as the #1 RB you better put up close to 20 points in a standard scoring league.  I think he falls short of that.

My Forecast:

22 carries 96 yards, 2 catches 15 yards 0 TDs.   11.1 standard points

On to the games in Week 7:

SEA @ ARI (+6.5)

That whole NFC West is just a weird division.  One day all of them look terrible and then it looks like the whole division will make the playoffs.

Seahwaks 23 Cards 14

NE @ NYJ (+4.5)

How did the Jets beat Atlanta on the road and then stink up the joint against Pitt?  New England got luck pulling out a win last week.  Patriots have no trouble with them this week

Pats 28 Jets 10

TB @ ATL (-7.5)

The Falcons are a mess.  But not as big of a mess as Tampa is.

Falcons 21 Bucs 10

BUF @ MIA (-7.5)

Fins coming off a bye week and I’m too lazy to look up their record with coming off byes.  Wait a second, my phone just rang.  It’s the Bills personnel department, they want to know if I want to try out to start as QB.  It doesn’t matter what the Find record off the bye is I guess.

Fins 23 Bills 6

CIN @ DET (-2.5)

Total toss up game for me.  I can’t get a read on either team.  Lions at home sound good

Lions 27 Bengals 24

SD @ JAC (+9.5)

Did you see Phillip Rivers face when they won last Monday night.  It looked like he was dry humping something without moving his body.  What a douche, god it would be so nice for them to lose to Jville.  I don’t see it but I’m going with the Jags to cover along the San Diego can’t put 2 games together theory.

Chargers 23 Jaguars 14

STL @ CAR (-6.5)

More teams that you would be crazy to try to get a read on.  A touchdown seems like too many points to lay for Carolina given their inconsistency.

Panthers 24 Rams 20

CHI @ WAS (-0.5)

Hey RG III, its John…..Yeah its official, I just got out of the meeting.  We’re changing the name of the Redskins to the Washington Microwarehouses.  That’s for you Frenchy!

But you Bears fans will not like the selection.  Da Bears have some issues with the interior of the D line due to injuries.  I think Alfred Morris has a big game.  (I would start Alfred Morris over AP, see above section)

Microwearhouses 21 Da Bears 20

SF @ TEN (+4.5)

Every time I see that Jim Harbaugh Visa commercial I still laugh and I have no idea why cause it’s not even that funny anymore.

9ers 26 Titans 16

BAL @ PIT (-2.5)

This line surprises me, let’s not go crazy with Pittsburgh and their first win.  They beat the Jets for christ sake.

Ravens 17 Steelers 16

CLE @ GB (-10.5)

The Pack lost 2 of its top 3 receivers.  Cobb is out on IR and James Jones doesn’t look like he’s going to play.  The Cleveland D took a shit last week but I think they can hang within 10 points.

Pack 27 Browns 20

HOU @ KC (-6.5)

What the fuck happened to Houston?   KC will continue to bore everyone into a 13-3 record

Chefs 21 Texans 9

DEN @ IND (+6.5)

Game of the week.  Peyton has his homecoming and is probably pretty pissed about the Jim Irsay comments.  That guy is a douche and now his team is about to get blasted.

Broncos 35 Colts 21

MIN @ NYG (-3.5)

We save the best for last.   I’m sure the Monday night execs are just pumped for this matchup.   I said to myself before the Bears game I wouldn’t pick the Giants until they had their first win.   However, watching last week’s game I thought they hit rock bottom though after Eli’s pick six in the first quarter.  It was so bad up until that point it was comical.  After that pick though I thought they played OK and almost pulled one out.  You couldn’t ask for a better matchup to get your first win.  The Vikes are going to start Josh Freeman.  Enough said but it’s probably going to be ugly.

GMEN 28 Vikes 24

Last Week ATS Record 6-9

Season ATS Record 12-17

Last Week SU Record 12-3

Season SU Record 19-10

Family Guy Quote

Unlike my credit card, I have a very low rate of interest – Peter Griffin

peytonOur first week is in the books and it wasn’t anything to write home about but it was an epic disaster either.   Both the SU records and ATS records need to be improved on but for our first week back into the swing of things I’ll take it.   I started off real nice with the early games but the late games really went against me.  I tallied all last week’s games at the bottom of the page.   We’re coming out guns blazing this week though with what I feel are some solid picks all around.  Lots of crazy lines this week headlined by the Jags/Broncos game.

 I was watching TV the other night and I noticed that there were #’s everywhere.  Every fucking show had # then something, I assume for twitter.    This must be the queerest thing in the world.  Even worse is the word Hashtag.  When the fuck did this become an acceptable word?  Hashtag?   I can only testify that from the late 70’s to the early 2010’s the word hashtag was never uttered anywhere near my presence.  Where I grew up that thing was called the fucking number sign or the tic tac toe sign for the less inclined.   That was it, there was no such thing as a hash tag.  Maybe some typist out in Bismark, ND called it a hash tag but that’s about it.  The absolute worst is when I hear something, usually on TV on those gay gossip shows(I’m kidding I sort of like those shows), when they throw out multiple hashtags in a row to express how they are feeling.  For example:

 #mycuntsmells

#vagisil

#muchbetternow

 I was on the phone with my tech desk at work to reset a password and I’m talking to some fuck probably out in India who keeps calling me Mr. Scott.  Whenever you have to reset a password nowadays is like getting a launch sequence code that’s going to start WW III.   Don’t they know I’m going to change it to vagina#19 anyway.  The guy was giving the new temporary password letter by letter.  It was something like R5m%QWP5421:P087}{Fucku but then he ended it with the # and actually said the number sign.  I almost lost my shit and I went into a very similar diatribe that you see above.  I was ready to tell his supervisor he needed an immediate raise and a corner office.  Needless to say the Indian guy didn’t find my any of my thoughts enlightening and wished me a nice day.

 Let’s look into the this week’s games:

 NYG @ Da Bears (-8.5)

The Giants are just a disaster.  They are 3-10 in their last 13 games.  Everyone of their games has been decided by more than 10 points.  Until the offense shows they can stop turning the ball over and the defense can stop someone when it matters, I don’t see how you can bet on them.  It’s like a stock that’s getting crushed you never want to step in and try to catch the falling knife.  What’s crazy is they are still only 2 games out of the first place in the NFC least.   I know there is a fair share of readers attending the game and I’m very jealous.  The GMen being 0-5 takes the sting out of it a touch but there is nothing better than a tailgate.  You all will receive a subscription of Ditka quarterly for attending.  Enjoy the game fellas!   Da Bears 31  Giants 21

Oh by the way,  last time the Giants and Bears played this happened:

PIT @ NYJ (-1.5)

OK, I was dead wrong about the Jets last week.  How in the world did they beat Atlanta in the dome?  Can they keep it up against a winless Pittsburgh team?  Can they build on a very impressive win?  The answer ladies and gentlemen is a resounding NO even though the Steelers are brutal! Fuck the Jets… Steelers 17 Jets 16

 DET @ CLE (+2.5)

There are a bunch of home dogs this week and here’s the first.   That’s a big home dawg.  Ever since Cleveland supposedly tanked their season and traded their best player, they are 2-0.  There defense is legit.  Weeden looked OK in relief getting his job back after the Hoyer injury.  Browns 20 Lions 17

 CAR @ MINN(-2.5)

Just like I said last week Cam Newton is the most inconsistent play in the league.  They looked like shit against the Cardinals.  Minnesota hasn’t named a starting QB as of time of this writing so that’s that.  I would probably rather do anything else besides watch this game.  Panthers 17 Vikings 14

 CIN @ BUF (+7.5)

Another home dog but I think this one plays out as the line indicates.  I think the Bills are starting Thad Lewis as the QB.   You probably know Thad Lewis from nowhere.  You’ve never heard of him.  Bengals 31 Bills 13

 PHI @ TB (+1.5)

Both teams aren’t good but the Eagles suck worse.  Nick Foles is going to start and the only other time he started a game came last year vs the Bucs and he shredded them. Eagles 24 Bucs 20

 OAK at KC (-9.5)

KC just seems like that gay team that will go 13-3 even though they are terrible and boring to watch but will lose by 20 in the first round of the playoffs to a far superior team with a worse record.  Chefs 24 Raiders 13

 GB @ BALT(+3.5)

2 teams that are just all over the map.  You never know what you are going to get from either of these teams.  That being said I’ll take Balt at home with more than a field goal even though I think they lose.  Pack 27 Ravens 24

 STL @ HOU (-7.5)

You should be real proud of yourself St. Louis you beat the Jags.  You’re still awful.  Houston is in a rut right now but there are far too many good players on that team for them to shit the bed so early.  Matt Schaub not throwing pick 6’s would help out the cause for sure.   After last week’s game people fans up at his house.  http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/10/08/fans-confront-matt-schaub-at-his-home/

That got me thinking about how weird that is.  Imaging coming home from a tough day at work and you’re finally sitting on the couch in your boxers eating peanut butter cookies watching House Hunters.  You get a knock on the door and some cunt clad in your companies gear is ranting and raving about how bad you were that day.   Worse part of that whole thing is they probably knock on your door just about the time the couple on the show makes their house selection and by the time you get back an episode of house hunters international starts.  I fucking hate house hunters international.   It’s always some dicklicker who has this great job and basically travels the world every few years and now has to find a flat in Rome or some shit.   Fuck en that show’s fake any way.    http://www.slate.com/blogs/xx_factor/2012/06/14/house_hunters_is_fake_here_s_why_it_matters.html

 Texans 21 Rams 13

 JAC @ DEN (-26.5)

Holy fuck, basically 4 Touchdown difference spread.  This has to be the betting game of the week.   The problem as I see it betting on the Broncos is how much are they really going to put it their foot on the pedal in the second half.  The game clearly is going to be out of reach and if it’s say 35-0 at the end of the 3rd quarter I don’t know how many starters will play.  Manning, I doubt, will be in the game at that point.   This one has me really torn.  However, I just can’t see Jacksonville scoring enough points at the end of the day to cover even on some gay backdoor cover.  Broncos 45 Jags 7

 TEN @ SEA (-13.5)

You’re the only Ten I see.  I’m sorry I apologize for that.   Another big fucking spread though, Jesus.   I don’t love the Seattle offense at all giving that many points but I think their D will have no problem handling the Tennessee O.  Seahawks 21-Titans 3

 NO @ NE (-2.5)

I’m all over the Saints if this game is in the Big Easy but in Foxboro it’s a different story.  NE doesn’t’ lose many back to back games and they don’t lose much at home however I’ll take the Saints with the points.  Pats 31 Saints 30

 ARI @ SF(-11.5)

San Fran looked like they got their act together last week a little bit but I would be worried about their passing game if I was them.   Kaepernick doesn’t look like the same guy.  If you notice these pistol offense guys like him and RG III look like shit because the league has figured them out.   Neither are outstanding passers, they are good at best but in this league you need a pure drop back passer.  I mean look at what Manning and Romo did last week in terms of production.  Guys like Kaepernick need to run to be fully effective.  I don’t know where that tangent came from.  I was going to talk about gays in the city of San Francisco.  49ers 24 Cards 17

 WAS @ DAL(-5.5)

Romo Romoed himself last week but he played an unbelievable game in all seriousness.  He stood toe to toe with the MVP and almost pulled it out.  I think they’ll handle the Redskins this week.  Boys 30 Redskins 24

 IND @ SD (+1.5)

The Cots have beat San Fran and Seattle.   The Chargers haven’t and last week they proved that it wasn’t Norv Turner.   It’s just that team.  They will never be consistently good.  Colts 27 Bolts 20

Last Week ATS Record 6-8

Season ATS Record 6-8

Last Week SU Record 7-7

Season SU Record 7-7

Family Guy Quote

Nobody calls me a fizzle and gets away with it. Except that one guy who called me a fizzle and ran, I guess he got away with it. But after today, only half of the people who called me a fizzle will have gotten away with it. – Peter Griffin

nfl logoWe are back and better than ever with a whole new year of football wagers.  We missed the first quarter of the season but who gives a fuck.   I’ve decided to use a different betting method this year.    We’re going with picking every game with the spread.  I find this to be the creme de la creme of football wagering acumen.   There was too much math last year with picking teasers and parlays.  It took too long to do that shit so this way its much easier and I enjoy picking all of the games.   I kept the name of the blog because parlays and teasers is a tits name.  I might throw in a bonus parlay or something every now and again if we are feeling spicy.   But all in all the format will basically be the same, I’ll tell a stupid story or get something off my chest first, then pick games, and finally tally everything for the week and the year at the end.   And away we go into week 5……..

Me and the misses went to Buy Buy Baby the other day to look at things for a baby registry.  I didn’t even know what a Buy Buy Baby was until about an hour before we went there.  Supposedly, its the same company as Bed Bath & Beyond so you get to use those 20% coupons.  I love those fucking coupons.  Anytime I’m in Bed Bath & Beyond I find myself searching for the most expensive thing so the coupon has as much power as possible.  It’s such a thrill to have cashier ring up the item and then tell me the full retail price.  I love making such a scene by slapping the poor hippie cashier in the mouth with my cardboard coupon all while announcing my huge savings to the rest of the store.   That has to be the best way to shop.  Anyway,  Buy Buy Baby gives you this private shopper tour type thing where they are supposed to show you the different baby gadgets and doo hickies.   It gets you prepped for all the crap you need to purchase.  The problem was our private tour “person” was all tweaked out (shocking in south Florida) and reeked of cigarettes.   She was moving a mile a minute and brings us from one side of the store to another and there was no flow to anything so old Hal was getting confused and tired.  My head was spinning with so many different baby products I decided my best path to seem like I was still paying attention was to start checking the weights of everything by lifting things.  I’m sitting there lifting baby stroller travel systems going “This isn’t too heavy sweetie, you should be able to pick this in the trunk by yourself.”   That was my go to move when I didn’t understand or just didn’t want to listen any more I just started picking things up.   It’s a solid move in really any shopping experience that you have checked out on.  I’m lifting bassonettes and changing tables over my head like its a strong man competition.  I should be just a dynamite father.

This weeks games:

Buf @ Cle(-4.5)

I never thought in my life time I would actually like the Browns giving 4.5 to anyone.   Their D is pretty solid.  Browns 24-Bills 17

NO @ Chi(-1.5)

Seems like a total trap line with the Saints being undefeated and Da Bears coming off a tough loss.   The Saints D is much improved though and I like them to continue their winning streak.   Regardless, if you only do one thing on this blog  you must watch this video. Much of it you probably have seen before as its a cut up of various Superfans one liners but there are some great things in here.  Watch the whole thing and you wont be sorry but in particular watch the 1:05 minute mark and also the 2:08 minute mark.  They are especially relevant for this week’s game.  A quick spoiler, Bob Swerski has a Saints and Bears jersey glued together with Nacho cheese.   Saints 28-DA Bears 24

NE @ Cin(-1.5)

See above as again seems like a trap line and I’m taking the bait again. Pats 27-Bengals 20

Det @ GB(-6.5)

According to covers.com, Since 2001, teams coming off the bye week are 201-172-3 SU and 201-166-9 ATS in the regular season – an ATS winning percentage of 54 percent. Last year, teams coming off the bye week went 15-15-2 SU and 18-14 ATS.

That’s better than 50-50 which is far superior to my normal system of picking randomly. Pack 35-Lions 24

KC(-2.5) @ Tenn

This sounds like and will be the most boring game of the year.  2 offenses that run and throw 3 yard passes every drive.  Sounds like a real party.  I’m pretty sure Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to get into the mix.  Jesus Christ!  Chefs 16-Titans 9

Sea(-2.5) @ Indy

The line on this one is all over the board right now, it ranges from Sea -1 to Sea -3 and everything in between.  I want to like Indy but I’m not sure who that team is just yet. Seahawks 24-Colts 21

Jville @ STL(-11.5)

Upset Special.  Fuck off St Louis, you shouldn’t be giving double digit points to anyone, I don’t care how bad the Jags are. Jags 17-Rams 16

Balt @ MIA(-3.5)

One of the toughest plays this week in my opinion.  You would think that the Ravens bounce back after a really bad loss but I don’t think they do.   Fins have been good at home recently 5-0 ATS at home their last 5. Fins 20-Ravens 14

Philly trash @ NYG(-2.5)

The dogshit bowl.  I have no clue which of these teams even deserves a win.  Whoever does though puts themselves in contention in the NFC least.  It’s a joke to think about but it’s true.   Eagles 24-Gmen 20

CAR(-2.5) @ AZ

See above with the teams coming off a bye thing even though Cam Newton is the most inconsistent player in the league.  Panthers 24-Cards 17

Den(-7.5) @ Dal

I’m not seeing how the 26th ranked pass D is going to stop Peyton Manning.  That fuck is crazy good right now.  Broncos 38-Cowboys 28

Hou @ San Fran(-7.5)

That seems like a lot of points for SF to be laying.  Houston was one bad quarter away from beating the Seahawks.   Houston may not win but I think they cover a TD plus.  49ers 27-Texans 24

SD(-4.5) @ Oak

Since San Diego had a nice win last week there is nothing to do but bet against them this week.  If you deliberately stay up to watch this game you have major issues.  If you’re watching this game live to see how Philip Rivers does because your down by 10 points in your fantasy football matchup then stop playing fantasy football.    Kickoff is at 11:35pm Eastern Sunday night cause of a conflict with the A’s playoff game.   Chargers 24-Raiders 23

NYJ @ ATL(-9.5)

J E T S get slaughtered and the ultimate demise of Rex Ryan is almost complete. Falcons 31-Jets 10

Last Week ATS Record 0-0

Season ATS Record 0-0

Last Week SU Record 0-0

Season SU Record 0-0

Leaving you with Family Guy Quote (I pretty much ran dry the best My Blue Heaven quotes last year so we’ll go with the more abundant Family Guy)

“Excuse me, is your refrigerator running? Because if it is, it probably runs like you – very homosexually.”  –Peter Griffin