Week 12 Turkey Day

(IF YOU DON’T MIND I WOULD LIKE TO QUOTE MY FAVORITE FAMILY GUY LINE OF ALL TIME NOW THAT ITS THANKSGIVING TIME, IT SEEMS APPROPRIATE)

I’M JOHN WAYNE AT THE FIRST THANKSGIVING, HAPPY THANKSGIVING PILGRIMS

HOW ABOUT JOHN WAYNE BOBBIT AT THE FIRST THANKSGIVING, WHERES MY PENIS PILGRIMS

OH YOU LIKE THAT, THIS IS JOHN WAYNE GACY AT THE FIRST THANKSGIVING, I WANT TO DRESS UP LIKE A CLOWN AND HAVE SEX WITH CHILDREN AND KILL THEM PILGRIMS

-Peter Griffin in Room For Improv-ment

WEEK 11 RUNDOWN

A mixed bag in Week 11 for the good guys.  We won our 1 Winner again which makes us 2-0 there and we were close to the other ones to no avail.  Lost the parlay cause the Jets all of a sudden decided they weren’t dogshit and our teaser was almost a win until the Pats just laid the wood to the Colts.  However our teaser strategy was spot on, in fact if we had picked any of the other large spreads it would have been a winner.  Lets Review:

Win $50 on Green Bay -3.5 vs DET  (24-20)  just barely

Lose $30 on Washington -3½ vs Philadelphia (W) and Rams -3½ vs Jets (L) (31-6 & 27-13)

Lose $30 on Cleveland  +15½  vs Dallas (W), San Diego +15.5  vs Denver Broncos (W), Indianapolis  +16½  vs New England (L)  (23-20, 30-23, 59-24)

Week 11 Loss (10.00)- not good, not terrible

WEEK 12 PICKS

We head into turkey day which means turkey, beers, pie, football (in no particular order).  I just cant wait to unbutton my pants and just sit there in silence debating on whether to eat more or take a dump.  The after thanksgiving first helping dump might be the best dump of all time.   It just gives you all the confidence in the world to keep going.   I equate it to any athlete who comes into halftime who is injured and takes some sort of pain killer to get through the rest of the game even though he knows it could affect him long term.  I feel the same way where I know I should just stop eating after one or two rounds because of the potential ramifications to my heart and blood pressure but if you can get that dump in you can push forward with more side dishes loaded with butter.

1 WINNER

Seattle Seahawks -3½ +115* vs Miami Dolphins

I’m playing with the lines a little this week as 5Dimes lets you move the spread in either direction for more or less favorable payouts.  I don’t really know what to make of either of these teams but I think either Tannehill has hit the rookie wall after a decent start or teams are scheming better for him as he looks uncomfortable out there lately.   Miami isn’t a very good home team ATS going 1-3 this year.  Both Miami and Seattle are 2 of those up and down teams but I trust Seattle’s D just a tad more in a close game.

PREDICTION: SEA 24-17

Bet $50 to win $57.50

1 PARLAY

Indianapolis Colts -3½ +115  vs Buffalo Bills

New England Patriots/New York Jets Over 48½ -102

Going back to the well here as the first week of this blog I also picked Indy and a NE over.   Indy at home coming off a big beat down in a game where Andrew Luck turned the ball over way too much.  I feel that he has a bounce back game to where he doesn’t turn the ball over.  I think they game plan a ball control oriented attack to take advantage of some of the Bill’s weaknesses on defense.  Indy is 4-1 ATS at home

The NE over has been a pretty money bet all season.  The obvious thing with NE is that Gronk is out so they lose a huge play maker but Brady’s been spreading the ball around pretty good and I think that Belicheck would like nothing more to run up the score on the Jets on Thanksgiving night to put a dagger into the Jets season.  NE is also 4-1 ATS on the road.

PREDICTIONS: INDY 28-20,  NE/JETS TOTAL 31-21

BET $30 to Win $97.74

1 TEASER (using 6.5 points this week)

We did better with our strategy last week but it still didn’t produce anything.  That strategy doesn’t really present itself this week because many of the lines are close.   I’m honestly at a loss looking at these spreads as nothing looks super appealing so I’m not going to dive into too much detail to try and break this teaser losing streak:

Washington Redskins +9½  vs Dallas Cowboys

Denver Broncos -4.5  vs Kansas City Chiefs

Atlanta Falcons +6½  vs Tampa Bay Bucs

PREDICTIONS: WAS wins by 1, DEN wins by 10, Falcons win by 3

BET $30.00 To Win $45.00

TOTAL WEEK 11 BETS: $110 to win $200.24

YEAR TO DATE REVIEW

YTD PROFIT/LOSS: +74.55

1 WINNER % (2-0 – 100%)

1 PARLAY % (1-1 – 50%)

1 TEASER % (0-2 – 0%)

HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO ALL AND TO ALL A GOOD NIGHT

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