Week 11

WEEK 10 RUNDOWN

Not a bad start last week where we were able to win our 1 WINNER and 1 PARLAY.  The teaser absolutely shit the bed but at least all the losers were confined to one bet.  The nice part were the Baltimore, NE/BUFF and Indy games were never really in doubt so they were pretty sweat free.  They were basically all over in the 3rd quarter which is always a plus.   Lets Review:

Win $50 on Baltimore -8.5 over OAK  (55-20)

Win $70.45 on Indy -3.5 over Jags and NE/BUFF over 51.5 (27-10 & 68 total points)

Lose $35 on the teaser.  It was so bad I wont even mention the teams involved.   In fact it wasn’t even close.  All 3 games lost, how is that even possible when you can control the spread.  I think its time to revamp the teaser strategy going forward.

Week 10 Profit $85.45, not bad betting only $110

WEEK 11 PICKS

This week has been very odd as some of the lines have come off the board when Im writing this.  The Ravens at Steelers and Bears at 49ers do not have lines right now with the injuries to Big Ben and Jay Cutler being uncertain (UPDATE: Big Ben was declared out after I initially wrote that and Pitt is +3.5).  The Eagles and Redskins game just came on since it appears that Nick Foles will start for Vick.

1 WINNER

Green Bay Packers* -3½ +100  vs Detroit Lions

Green Bay is 5-1 ATS over their last six games against the Lions in Detroit.  Detroit is also 1-6 ATS over their last seven games against divisional opponents.  I just think GB is just starting to round into form here.  They are coming off their bye and should be well rested.    I think the game is close overall but Packers pull away.
PREDICTION: GB 35-27

Bet 50 to win $50

1 PARLAY

Washington Redskins* -3½ -110  vs Philadelphia Eagles

St. Louis Rams* -3½ +100  vs New York Jets

I looked at a bunch of unders this week but I just have a hard time betting an under.  Its the equivalent of watching US woman’s soccer (as that is the only woman’s soccer that can remotely watched), you feel like you doing the right thing but its generally a big let down and you basically just spent the last 3 hours cheering for nothing to happen.  Anyway, I’m not buying the Nick Foles train on the road in his first career start.   Eagles D is not playing up to par and I think Bob Griffin can take advantage.

Do I really even have to give a reason to pick against the Jets?  They have to be the biggest shit show in all of sports and I don’t think its even close.   My biggest concern is that Jesus Christ himself is sick and tired of hearing teammates call out Tebow anonymously and he interferes with the game somehow.   Like a earthquake or the wind swirls in the dome during a field goal try or he gives Danny Amendola hepatitis before the game.                                                                          PREDICTIONS: WASH 24-17 & STL 20-6

BET $30 to Win $84.55

1 TEASER (using 6.5 points this week)

I take everything back about teasers, they are horrible.  Much like the Jets, they look pretty good when you look at them before a game starts but once the games starts its like watching a trainwreck.  As I said earlier I’m changing up the teaser strategy.  Last week I went with who I thought were the better teams and teased them down.  The parity in NFL is startling where any team can really beat anyone on a week to week basis.  Hence Im going to add some points onto some of the larger spreads (This strategy would have worked to perfection last week so me being a douchebag follower Im sure the reverse will happen this week.)  I thought about teasing up the Jags to about 22 points but there are so brutal I just couldn’t.  These 3 make the most sense as they’ve been involved in some close games recently.

Cleveland Browns* +15.5 vs Dallas Cowboys -The Browns have basically been in most of their games this year and they played pretty hard so I can see them keeping this within 2 TD’s.  The Browns are coming off the bye and are 8-2-1 ATS over their last 11 games following a straight-up loss, while the Cowboys are 0-6 ATS over their last six home game.  This all points to taking the Browns straight up but I’d rather tease to be sure

Indianapolis Colts* +16.5  vs New England Patriots – Indy is terrible on the road but they have some serious momentum and they are playing pretty well right now so I can see them not getting blownout.  Patriots D is suspect and also the saying Chuck Strong is the Tits

San Diego Chargers* +14½  vs Denver Broncos –I hate, hate, hate, hate the Chargers.  I hate Norv Turner.  I hate Phillip Rivers and I have no idea really why.  I just do, they just drive me crazy.   Its probably cause they are in San Diego so there is no media pressure and they can get away with being mediocre year after year with no repercussions.  They just keep their jobs and force feed their fans dogshit year after dogshit year.  Plus they get to live in San Diego where there are taco places on every corner and its 78 degrees everyday.    With that being said, if they lose by more than 2 touchdowns against the Broncos then I’ll probably just hate them a little more.   There were 3 large spreads by teasing up left after my first 2 choices (Chargers +14.5, Cardinals +17.5, and Jags +22.5).  The Chargers I think have the best shot out of those 3 to cover.                              PREDICTIONS:  CLE loses by 8, INDY loses by 10, SD loses by 13

BET $30.00 To Win $45.00

TOTAL WEEK 11 BETS: $110 to win $179.55

YEAR TO DATE REVIEW

YTD PROFIT/LOSS: +84.55

1 WINNER % (1-0 – 100%)

1 PARLAY % (1-0 – 100%)

1 TEASER % (0-1 – 0%)

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