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Monthly Archives: November 2012

                      WEEK 12 RUNDOWN

Hope everyone had a healthy and happy holiday.  I gorged myself as per usual and it was fantastic.  I did stumble upon a certain dessert that I didn’t know existed but am very happy that it does.  We were at Whole Foods looking for desserts (side note: I bought an entire separate pumpkin pie from there for myself not counting the pumpkin pie that was being served at the dinner) and went to the display and saw this concoction called Cannoli Cake.  It’s good as shit and I recommend everyone run down to their nearest Whole Foods and grab one.  It’s got a little cannoli on the top and the outer part is coated with cannoli crumbles.   I would recommend it for any occasion.  Plus if you bring it over to someones house you’ll look extra special cause you shop at whole foods like a fucking aristocrat.   I swear to Christ I could talk about cake and pie for another 30 minutes but lets review a nice and successful Week 12:

We were super close to going perfect with Seattle losing a late lead as the Fins were able to put together a 4th quarter surge.   The sprinklers went off in the middle of that game so I will blame that for ruining the perfect week.   Speaking of the Dolphins, I was watching Ace Ventura on TBS or some garbage channel the other day having a nice chuckle and started thinking they should have an actual Dolphin as a mascot like Snowflake from the movie.  They could keep its tank in the corner of the stadium and they could teach that fucking fish to kick field goals like the movie dolphin does.   I would think more people who show up to the games just the watch the Dolphin to see how it did on its kicks.  Bodog or some site would probably start making a line on over/under kicks made by the Dolphin or Dan Carpenter.

With that said, all in all a decent week hitting another Indy & NE over parlay and hitting the teaser for the first time.

Lose $50 on Seattle -3.5 vs MIA  (24-21)

WIN $97.74 on Indy -3½ vs Buffalo and NE/NYJ over 48.5 (20-13 & 49-18)

WIN $45 on Washington +9½  vs Cowboys, Broncos -4.5  vs  Chiefs,  Falcons +6½  vs  Bucs  (38-31, 17-9, 24-23)

Week 11 Gain $92.74

WEEK 13 PICKS

1 WINNER

Detroit Lions -4.5 vs Indianapolis Colts -110

The Lions got pretty hosed on that game on Thanksgiving day against the Texans.  The NFL has some of the dumbest rules with the way they use replay.   If a coach throws the challenge flag on a play where its an automatic review it negates the review and you get a penalty.  Who thought of that rule and then who would say after hearing that rule “Yeah that sounds like a pretty legit rule to implement”?  You have a mutli million dollar camera/tv system in place to review plays just like this but if you throw a little red flag on the field you not allowed to use it.  Keep up the good work competition committee.

PREDICTION: DET 28-20

Bet $55 to win $50.00

1 PARLAY

I’m not in love with many of the lines because this time of year its so tough to gauge what your going to get from most teams.   They are all so up and down week to week.  It seems like there is a new best team in the league/conference every week.    You also don’t really know which teams have given up yet cause there are many teams still in contention.    For example, the Giants come out and beat GB pretty handily but would it surprise anyone if they lose to Washington or GB coming back and beating up Minnesota.    I’d rather fucks with some totals as they are much more transparent.  I’m sticking with the NE over because its been the best bet in the league all year and I prefer to beating something to death so it can come back and bite me in the ass.   It’s similar to playing the terrible game of roulette.   The number I play always is 19 and everything around it.   I’ll proceed to scan the entire casino floor looking at the monitors trying to find a table where 19 has come out like that’s cracking some sort of secret fucking code.  I’ll then proceed to lose 75 spins in a row thinking that its due to come out while all the other tables are ringing up 19’s like its their job.   However, NE is 9-2 in overs and in some games they have covered the total by themselves.   I didn’t realize but TB is 8-3 in overs and DEN is 7-4 so I’m just playing the averages there.

NE/MIA Over 50.5  -110

DEN/TB Over 49½  -110

PREDICTIONS: NE-MIA TOTAL 35-24,  DEN/TB TOTAL 31-30

BET $30 to Win $79.34

1 TEASER (using 6.5 points this week)

These teasers really jumped off the page for me this week and they were the first games I picked so in other words they are doomed from the start.   I see a shootout in the Saints/Falcons game, GB coming back to life after a very bad performance Sunday night and Bears/Seahawks just needs to get over 30.5 which has to happen right?

Saints/Falcons over 48.5

Green Bay -2.5 vs Vikings

Bears/Seahawks over 30.5

PREDICTIONS: Falcons win 35-31, GB wins by 8, Bears win 21-14

BET $30.00 To Win $45.00

TOTAL WEEK 13 BETS: $115 to win $174.34

YEAR TO DATE REVIEW

YTD PROFIT/LOSS: +167.29

1 WINNER % (2-1 – 66%)

1 PARLAY % (2-1 – 66%)

1 TEASER % (1-2 – 33%)

The Powerball is up to $550 million for tonight’s drawing.   If you get a ticket from reading this then I’m entitled to half of the winnings.

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(IF YOU DON’T MIND I WOULD LIKE TO QUOTE MY FAVORITE FAMILY GUY LINE OF ALL TIME NOW THAT ITS THANKSGIVING TIME, IT SEEMS APPROPRIATE)

I’M JOHN WAYNE AT THE FIRST THANKSGIVING, HAPPY THANKSGIVING PILGRIMS

HOW ABOUT JOHN WAYNE BOBBIT AT THE FIRST THANKSGIVING, WHERES MY PENIS PILGRIMS

OH YOU LIKE THAT, THIS IS JOHN WAYNE GACY AT THE FIRST THANKSGIVING, I WANT TO DRESS UP LIKE A CLOWN AND HAVE SEX WITH CHILDREN AND KILL THEM PILGRIMS

-Peter Griffin in Room For Improv-ment

WEEK 11 RUNDOWN

A mixed bag in Week 11 for the good guys.  We won our 1 Winner again which makes us 2-0 there and we were close to the other ones to no avail.  Lost the parlay cause the Jets all of a sudden decided they weren’t dogshit and our teaser was almost a win until the Pats just laid the wood to the Colts.  However our teaser strategy was spot on, in fact if we had picked any of the other large spreads it would have been a winner.  Lets Review:

Win $50 on Green Bay -3.5 vs DET  (24-20)  just barely

Lose $30 on Washington -3½ vs Philadelphia (W) and Rams -3½ vs Jets (L) (31-6 & 27-13)

Lose $30 on Cleveland  +15½  vs Dallas (W), San Diego +15.5  vs Denver Broncos (W), Indianapolis  +16½  vs New England (L)  (23-20, 30-23, 59-24)

Week 11 Loss (10.00)- not good, not terrible

WEEK 12 PICKS

We head into turkey day which means turkey, beers, pie, football (in no particular order).  I just cant wait to unbutton my pants and just sit there in silence debating on whether to eat more or take a dump.  The after thanksgiving first helping dump might be the best dump of all time.   It just gives you all the confidence in the world to keep going.   I equate it to any athlete who comes into halftime who is injured and takes some sort of pain killer to get through the rest of the game even though he knows it could affect him long term.  I feel the same way where I know I should just stop eating after one or two rounds because of the potential ramifications to my heart and blood pressure but if you can get that dump in you can push forward with more side dishes loaded with butter.

1 WINNER

Seattle Seahawks -3½ +115* vs Miami Dolphins

I’m playing with the lines a little this week as 5Dimes lets you move the spread in either direction for more or less favorable payouts.  I don’t really know what to make of either of these teams but I think either Tannehill has hit the rookie wall after a decent start or teams are scheming better for him as he looks uncomfortable out there lately.   Miami isn’t a very good home team ATS going 1-3 this year.  Both Miami and Seattle are 2 of those up and down teams but I trust Seattle’s D just a tad more in a close game.

PREDICTION: SEA 24-17

Bet $50 to win $57.50

1 PARLAY

Indianapolis Colts -3½ +115  vs Buffalo Bills

New England Patriots/New York Jets Over 48½ -102

Going back to the well here as the first week of this blog I also picked Indy and a NE over.   Indy at home coming off a big beat down in a game where Andrew Luck turned the ball over way too much.  I feel that he has a bounce back game to where he doesn’t turn the ball over.  I think they game plan a ball control oriented attack to take advantage of some of the Bill’s weaknesses on defense.  Indy is 4-1 ATS at home

The NE over has been a pretty money bet all season.  The obvious thing with NE is that Gronk is out so they lose a huge play maker but Brady’s been spreading the ball around pretty good and I think that Belicheck would like nothing more to run up the score on the Jets on Thanksgiving night to put a dagger into the Jets season.  NE is also 4-1 ATS on the road.

PREDICTIONS: INDY 28-20,  NE/JETS TOTAL 31-21

BET $30 to Win $97.74

1 TEASER (using 6.5 points this week)

We did better with our strategy last week but it still didn’t produce anything.  That strategy doesn’t really present itself this week because many of the lines are close.   I’m honestly at a loss looking at these spreads as nothing looks super appealing so I’m not going to dive into too much detail to try and break this teaser losing streak:

Washington Redskins +9½  vs Dallas Cowboys

Denver Broncos -4.5  vs Kansas City Chiefs

Atlanta Falcons +6½  vs Tampa Bay Bucs

PREDICTIONS: WAS wins by 1, DEN wins by 10, Falcons win by 3

BET $30.00 To Win $45.00

TOTAL WEEK 11 BETS: $110 to win $200.24

YEAR TO DATE REVIEW

YTD PROFIT/LOSS: +74.55

1 WINNER % (2-0 – 100%)

1 PARLAY % (1-1 – 50%)

1 TEASER % (0-2 – 0%)

HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO ALL AND TO ALL A GOOD NIGHT

WEEK 10 RUNDOWN

Not a bad start last week where we were able to win our 1 WINNER and 1 PARLAY.  The teaser absolutely shit the bed but at least all the losers were confined to one bet.  The nice part were the Baltimore, NE/BUFF and Indy games were never really in doubt so they were pretty sweat free.  They were basically all over in the 3rd quarter which is always a plus.   Lets Review:

Win $50 on Baltimore -8.5 over OAK  (55-20)

Win $70.45 on Indy -3.5 over Jags and NE/BUFF over 51.5 (27-10 & 68 total points)

Lose $35 on the teaser.  It was so bad I wont even mention the teams involved.   In fact it wasn’t even close.  All 3 games lost, how is that even possible when you can control the spread.  I think its time to revamp the teaser strategy going forward.

Week 10 Profit $85.45, not bad betting only $110

WEEK 11 PICKS

This week has been very odd as some of the lines have come off the board when Im writing this.  The Ravens at Steelers and Bears at 49ers do not have lines right now with the injuries to Big Ben and Jay Cutler being uncertain (UPDATE: Big Ben was declared out after I initially wrote that and Pitt is +3.5).  The Eagles and Redskins game just came on since it appears that Nick Foles will start for Vick.

1 WINNER

Green Bay Packers* -3½ +100  vs Detroit Lions

Green Bay is 5-1 ATS over their last six games against the Lions in Detroit.  Detroit is also 1-6 ATS over their last seven games against divisional opponents.  I just think GB is just starting to round into form here.  They are coming off their bye and should be well rested.    I think the game is close overall but Packers pull away.
PREDICTION: GB 35-27

Bet 50 to win $50

1 PARLAY

Washington Redskins* -3½ -110  vs Philadelphia Eagles

St. Louis Rams* -3½ +100  vs New York Jets

I looked at a bunch of unders this week but I just have a hard time betting an under.  Its the equivalent of watching US woman’s soccer (as that is the only woman’s soccer that can remotely watched), you feel like you doing the right thing but its generally a big let down and you basically just spent the last 3 hours cheering for nothing to happen.  Anyway, I’m not buying the Nick Foles train on the road in his first career start.   Eagles D is not playing up to par and I think Bob Griffin can take advantage.

Do I really even have to give a reason to pick against the Jets?  They have to be the biggest shit show in all of sports and I don’t think its even close.   My biggest concern is that Jesus Christ himself is sick and tired of hearing teammates call out Tebow anonymously and he interferes with the game somehow.   Like a earthquake or the wind swirls in the dome during a field goal try or he gives Danny Amendola hepatitis before the game.                                                                          PREDICTIONS: WASH 24-17 & STL 20-6

BET $30 to Win $84.55

1 TEASER (using 6.5 points this week)

I take everything back about teasers, they are horrible.  Much like the Jets, they look pretty good when you look at them before a game starts but once the games starts its like watching a trainwreck.  As I said earlier I’m changing up the teaser strategy.  Last week I went with who I thought were the better teams and teased them down.  The parity in NFL is startling where any team can really beat anyone on a week to week basis.  Hence Im going to add some points onto some of the larger spreads (This strategy would have worked to perfection last week so me being a douchebag follower Im sure the reverse will happen this week.)  I thought about teasing up the Jags to about 22 points but there are so brutal I just couldn’t.  These 3 make the most sense as they’ve been involved in some close games recently.

Cleveland Browns* +15.5 vs Dallas Cowboys -The Browns have basically been in most of their games this year and they played pretty hard so I can see them keeping this within 2 TD’s.  The Browns are coming off the bye and are 8-2-1 ATS over their last 11 games following a straight-up loss, while the Cowboys are 0-6 ATS over their last six home game.  This all points to taking the Browns straight up but I’d rather tease to be sure

Indianapolis Colts* +16.5  vs New England Patriots – Indy is terrible on the road but they have some serious momentum and they are playing pretty well right now so I can see them not getting blownout.  Patriots D is suspect and also the saying Chuck Strong is the Tits

San Diego Chargers* +14½  vs Denver Broncos –I hate, hate, hate, hate the Chargers.  I hate Norv Turner.  I hate Phillip Rivers and I have no idea really why.  I just do, they just drive me crazy.   Its probably cause they are in San Diego so there is no media pressure and they can get away with being mediocre year after year with no repercussions.  They just keep their jobs and force feed their fans dogshit year after dogshit year.  Plus they get to live in San Diego where there are taco places on every corner and its 78 degrees everyday.    With that being said, if they lose by more than 2 touchdowns against the Broncos then I’ll probably just hate them a little more.   There were 3 large spreads by teasing up left after my first 2 choices (Chargers +14.5, Cardinals +17.5, and Jags +22.5).  The Chargers I think have the best shot out of those 3 to cover.                              PREDICTIONS:  CLE loses by 8, INDY loses by 10, SD loses by 13

BET $30.00 To Win $45.00

TOTAL WEEK 11 BETS: $110 to win $179.55

YEAR TO DATE REVIEW

YTD PROFIT/LOSS: +84.55

1 WINNER % (1-0 – 100%)

1 PARLAY % (1-0 – 100%)

1 TEASER % (0-1 – 0%)

ONE WINNER, ONE PARLAY, ONE TEASER

Good day to all, I’m throwing my hat into the wonderful and fulfilling world on internet sports betting.   There’s nothing better than flushing hard earned dollars down the toilet watching millionaire athletes crush your soul on a weekly basis.   Recently, I started this new betting system each week where I bet just one straight winner, one parlay and one teaser.  I found it to be a good way to spread bets around and so far I’ve kept my head above water which I feel is a win.  There will be no deviations from this and I must place one of each type each week with no exceptions.  My goal is to have certain winning percentages on each betting type:

Above 60% on straight winners

Above 40% on Parlays

At or above 50% Teasers

These percentages should ensure a winning remaining part of the season or at the very least even which I consider a positive.    A few key housekeeping items, I get all of my spreads from 5Dimes sports book and I will only use half points on all spreads because ties/pushes are lame, just like most but not all soccer matches.   Without further adieu, lets take a peek at a tough Week 10 in the NFL:

1 WINNER

Baltimore Ravens -8½ +100* vs Oakland Raiders 1PM EST

I put the time of the game up there because that is basically the main reason I am laying more than a touchdown here.  The Raiders record coming across the country and playing a 1pm game is pretty brutal.  This would be a great time to bust out some mathematical stat to prove this.  I could probably google it and have it in 5 seconds but I’m so lazy.  Just take my word for it.  Fine, I caved and looked it up because I just yearn for my peers approval.  Their record since 2005 is 12-25 including 0-2 this year.   Also looks like RUN DMC and backup Mike Goodson might not play leaving Taiwan Jones or Marcel Reese to run the ball for the Raiders.   My one hesitation is the spread is a few too many for my liking because Baltimore hasn’t really been blowing people out however they are 4-0 at home and Ray Rice could potentially have a nice day after TB ran wild on the Raiders.
PREDICTION: Ravens 27-14,

BET: $50 to WIN $50

1 PARLAY

Honestly, if I wasn’t a douche and came up with this stupid betting system I would probably be staying away from the Parlay this week but I digress.

INDIANAPOLIS -3.5 +100 vs Jacksonville Jags plus  BUF vs. NE TOTAL over 51.5 -110

I’m basing this more on Jacksonville being horrible than liking the Colts.  The Colts are coming off an extremely emotional victory over Miami where Chuck Pagano gave a pretty fantastic speech before and after the game.  They all shaved their heads in support of him so they have some good momentum going.  They are also looking to avenge an earlier season loss to the Jags in Indy.  The Colts aren’t a great road team and could be due for an emotional let down but lets face it,the Jags are brutal.  They are also 0-4 at home.

The NE/BUF game should be a high scoring affair.  NE offense is playing pretty well right now along with a Buffalo D that can’t stop anyone.  Buffalo should be able to put some points on the board to get this total over.  Weather doesn’t appear to be an issue for game day as of right now with the forecast calling for high’s near 60 and light winds.

PREDICTIONS: Indy 24-7 &  NE 42-BUF 17

BET: $25 to WIN $70.45

1 TEASER

I don’t know why I love teasers so much, I just do.  It probably has something to do with when you look at the lines moved up or down they look so enticing like a big fat streak with all the trimmings.  I look at every game thinking how easy is this.  Then reality sinks in and they play the actual games.  Usually the line being moved wouldn’t have affected it at all but that rare time when you tease a game and it covers because of the tease you feel like Jimmy the Greek’s long lost offspring.  .  I think there are many teasers that look really nice but I’ve settled on these 3 with moving the line 5.5 points.

San Francisco 49ers -6.5 vs St. Louis Rams 

New England Patriots -6.5 vs Buffalo Bills

New York Giants +1.5 vs Cincinnati Bengals

I think the first 2 are pretty easy.   Large lines that I can bring down with superior teams at home vs 2 teams that are frankly not that good.   I don’t think either team should have an issue covering a touchdown but just in case its close there’s a little leeway built in.    The last one might seem like I’m being a homer but not really when you look into it.  The Giants are just a better road team for some reason.  Their best victory performances this year have all been on the road (SF & CAR).  Plus, I can see the Giants offense getting on track this week after multiple sub par performances vs a pretty pedestrian Bengals D.   I think it will be close but I see the Giants winning outright but maybe not covering the 4 point regular spread, hence the tease.   

PREDICTIONS: (SF 28-10) (NE 42-17) (NYG 28-24)

BET: $35 to WIN $63.00

TOTAL WEEK 10 BETS:  $110 to WIN $183.45